Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.7178.965
Median6.89718.692
Mean9.70527.588
75% Quartile12.59137.073
Interquartile Range8.87328.108

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
148.286127.742
237.092106.169
331.97997.873
429.18591.149
527.05386.236
625.31279.512
723.83574.872
822.64870.606
921.59666.425
1020.62263.336
1119.78560.810
1218.90558.060
1318.27456.003
1417.50253.967
1516.98751.760
1616.48150.033
1715.90048.044
1815.30946.050
1914.93844.324
2014.50542.983
2114.07341.704
2213.59440.299
2313.27339.330
2412.87637.936
2512.59437.074
2612.28236.338
2711.96035.232
2811.62934.365
2911.34933.369
3011.08932.290
3110.80531.318
3210.50230.345
3310.20729.587
349.98728.850
359.72127.853
369.48227.068
379.22726.296
389.01525.586
398.77225.010
408.54624.263
418.38023.551
428.19923.031
438.04022.597
447.87622.007
457.71221.484
467.52720.905
477.35920.387
487.22319.721
497.05419.223
506.89718.692
516.77018.217
526.64217.747
536.50217.204
546.33116.693
556.19116.182
566.06615.573
575.94215.218
585.82314.863
595.68514.478
605.54313.979
615.42113.490
625.30513.138
635.18712.813
645.06212.419
654.90512.116
664.80711.810
674.65711.527
684.54111.162
694.40010.792
704.27210.529
714.16810.174
724.0509.893
733.9649.567
743.8509.280
753.7148.965
763.6008.687
773.4708.387
783.3728.114
793.2317.856
803.1127.521
812.9867.211
822.8606.920
832.7516.594
842.6286.325
852.5376.094
862.4215.787
872.2645.475
882.1265.228
891.9774.934
901.8394.613
911.7004.318
921.5543.975
931.4013.615
941.2603.187
951.1152.886
960.9402.546
970.6432.060
980.3251.651
990.0001.186


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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