Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


Return to catchment list
Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek



Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek ( Jan  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.6032.088
Median5.9564.437
Mean7.5827.076
75% Quartile9.8549.062
Interquartile Range6.2506.974

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
128.25539.138
224.34931.021
321.82528.011
420.17925.631
519.09123.930
617.84421.659
716.78120.133
816.06018.762
915.44717.447
1014.87916.495
1114.28315.729
1213.81814.908
1313.26314.303
1412.86413.711
1512.41413.077
1612.10712.587
1711.80712.029
1811.46011.476
1911.25111.002
2011.03710.637
2110.77110.292
2210.5669.916
2310.3369.657
2410.1109.289
259.8549.062
269.6348.870
279.4198.581
289.2238.356
299.0108.100
308.8317.823
318.6427.574
328.4587.327
338.2907.135
348.1256.949
357.9486.698
367.7956.501
377.6696.309
387.5186.132
397.3715.989
407.1895.803
417.0435.627
426.8825.499
436.7765.392
446.6455.247
456.5125.119
466.3984.977
476.2714.850
486.1644.687
496.0664.566
505.9564.437
515.8554.321
525.7594.207
535.6274.075
545.5003.952
555.4243.828
565.3303.680
575.2463.595
585.1523.509
595.0723.416
604.9893.296
614.9193.178
624.8133.093
634.7343.014
644.6582.920
654.5682.847
664.4702.773
674.3812.705
684.2662.617
694.1712.528
704.0812.465
714.0112.379
723.9252.312
733.8142.233
743.7102.164
753.6022.088
763.4962.021
773.4131.949
783.3271.884
793.2491.821
803.1411.741
813.0731.666
822.9861.596
832.8771.517
842.8091.452
852.6951.396
862.6011.322
872.5151.247
882.3901.187
892.2741.116
902.1571.038
912.0510.966
921.9490.883
931.8620.796
941.7360.691
951.5920.618
961.4290.534
971.2860.415
981.1140.315
990.8110.200


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence