Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek



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Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek ( Jan 2010 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.0812.088
Median1.8954.437
Mean2.5827.076
75% Quartile3.3159.062
Interquartile Range2.2346.974

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
111.62239.138
29.28831.021
38.13628.011
47.43725.631
56.97723.930
66.49621.659
76.10720.133
85.79618.762
95.48917.447
105.29416.495
115.07715.729
124.84214.908
134.68214.303
144.52713.711
154.34913.077
164.19912.587
174.07212.029
183.97611.476
193.87311.002
203.78010.637
213.64710.292
223.5609.916
233.4749.657
243.3839.289
253.3159.062
263.2408.870
273.1618.581
283.0858.356
293.0188.100
302.9517.823
312.8917.574
322.8207.327
332.7637.135
342.7166.949
352.6576.698
362.5916.501
372.5266.309
382.4756.132
392.4175.989
402.3675.803
412.3195.627
422.2555.499
432.1955.392
442.1475.247
452.1025.119
462.0664.977
472.0124.850
481.9744.687
491.9324.566
501.8954.437
511.8544.321
521.8254.207
531.7904.075
541.7553.952
551.7293.828
561.7043.680
571.6713.595
581.6423.509
591.6023.416
601.5653.296
611.5263.178
621.4893.093
631.4563.014
641.4292.920
651.3962.847
661.3682.773
671.3412.705
681.3092.617
691.2702.528
701.2342.465
711.2072.379
721.1682.312
731.1432.233
741.1152.164
751.0812.088
761.0452.021
771.0031.949
780.9751.884
790.9421.821
800.9141.741
810.8861.666
820.8551.596
830.8271.517
840.7931.452
850.7631.396
860.7341.322
870.7011.247
880.6571.187
890.6291.116
900.5941.038
910.5570.966
920.5160.883
930.4820.796
940.4380.691
950.3850.618
960.3360.534
970.2770.415
980.2130.315
990.1000.200


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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