Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Apr2.5830.0390.2320.8856.836
Apr-May6.6190.0570.4811.82257.640
Apr-Jun14.93812.3740.78512.169122.559

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109.49828.850
206.43817.697
304.72112.815
403.6319.464
502.8057.248
602.1755.425
701.6574.124
801.1962.996
900.6981.912

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
127.53697.823
220.22666.617
317.03757.148
414.71550.426
513.55545.791
612.47640.257
711.43636.718
810.59133.639
910.02730.822
109.49828.850
119.09527.302
128.64525.685
138.23624.503
147.95623.353
157.64522.153
167.40321.247
177.11420.207
186.91819.192
196.67818.343
206.43817.697
216.19217.087
226.01616.402
235.83015.974
245.69815.326
255.53514.940
265.35814.610
275.19814.103
285.04813.712
294.85013.290
304.72112.815
314.61012.401
324.47911.976
334.33711.655
344.23811.359
354.10910.932
364.03810.614
373.89710.293
383.80010.006
393.6999.767
403.6319.464
413.5349.175
423.4148.968
433.3488.791
443.2748.558
453.1938.350
463.1078.116
473.0337.917
482.9617.654
492.8727.455
502.8057.248
512.7217.063
522.6446.884
532.5676.667
542.5126.476
552.4516.267
562.3916.041
572.3295.904
582.2715.766
592.2215.621
602.1755.425
612.1195.243
622.0635.110
632.0074.985
641.9554.839
651.9014.724
661.8584.608
671.8164.501
681.7604.363
691.7184.223
701.6574.124
711.6273.991
721.5843.885
731.5303.762
741.4803.654
751.4353.536
761.3853.432
771.3323.320
781.2933.217
791.2393.121
801.1962.996
811.1442.880
821.0962.771
831.0342.649
840.9902.549
850.9332.463
860.9002.349
870.8522.232
880.7962.140
890.7512.031
900.6981.912
910.6401.802
920.5851.674
930.5331.541
940.4701.382
950.4111.270
960.3561.144
970.2830.964
980.1860.812
990.0220.640


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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