Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Sep11.2765.8287.7660.7644.91137.804
Sep-Oct22.65810.44114.3531.7479.09192.724
Sep-Nov31.77315.56119.7131.94813.817132.757

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1063.11969.589
2049.14549.542
3040.71338.359
4034.04229.580
5028.94423.274
6024.71617.799
7020.45813.708
8016.25210.084
9011.8096.525

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1108.455128.291
292.219109.005
386.840101.527
481.32395.427
577.33390.943
673.72484.761
770.21080.457
867.62776.469
965.09972.526
1063.11969.589
1161.13767.169
1259.48364.516
1357.77362.518
1456.24560.528
1554.99158.356
1653.72256.644
1752.46154.660
1851.50652.656
1950.42050.908
2049.14549.542
2148.19948.232
2246.94446.786
2346.04545.782
2445.35244.331
2544.68443.429
2643.88042.657
2743.04341.491
2842.24340.572
2941.51039.513
3040.71338.359
3139.89837.314
3239.27736.264
3338.55435.443
3437.99034.640
3537.29333.550
3636.64832.688
3736.04731.837
3835.35031.052
3934.84330.412
4034.04229.580
4133.57028.784
4232.98028.201
4332.34127.713
4431.89227.048
4531.27026.456
4630.75625.801
4730.35625.212
4829.92124.451
4929.42123.883
5028.94423.274
5128.38622.727
5228.04422.186
5327.67721.559
5427.20620.967
5526.75120.374
5626.44719.664
5725.90419.250
5825.52118.835
5925.14018.384
6024.71617.799
6124.32817.223
6223.87416.807
6323.47716.423
6423.09515.957
6522.62415.598
6622.22315.234
6721.79514.897
6821.31114.463
6920.82714.022
7020.45813.708
7120.01513.283
7219.65812.946
7319.25712.555
7418.87312.209
7518.47311.830
7618.04911.495
7717.52711.133
7817.05810.803
7916.61110.490
8016.25210.084
8115.8349.707
8215.4579.353
8314.9528.956
8414.5388.627
8514.0568.345
8613.7047.969
8713.2077.587
8812.8027.283
8912.3106.922
9011.8096.525
9111.2316.161
9210.7855.736
9310.0955.291
949.4744.758
958.7164.382
967.9983.956
977.2373.346
986.4282.831
995.2032.242


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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