Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Oct11.3824.6136.5860.5974.1806.786
Oct-Nov20.4979.73311.9461.0168.90539.958
Oct-Dec27.57312.69114.0361.04012.575135.641

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1040.49163.336
2029.69042.983
3023.36332.290
4018.67824.263
5015.43518.692
6012.39313.979
709.93710.529
807.6427.521
905.1464.613

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
182.653127.742
270.365106.169
363.85397.873
457.55591.149
552.33786.236
649.04379.512
746.23774.872
844.66470.606
942.57066.425
1040.49163.336
1138.77360.810
1237.65858.060
1336.36656.003
1434.96953.967
1533.59151.760
1632.65450.033
1731.88748.044
1831.10846.050
1930.42844.324
2029.69042.983
2129.00741.704
2228.42440.299
2327.79739.330
2427.04837.936
2526.41337.074
2625.87236.338
2725.10835.232
2824.70134.365
2923.88733.369
3023.36332.290
3122.76431.318
3222.27630.345
3321.80529.587
3421.32028.850
3520.80227.853
3620.26227.068
3719.83826.296
3819.46925.586
3919.11425.010
4018.67824.263
4118.34523.551
4218.01323.031
4317.64922.597
4417.31022.007
4517.03321.484
4616.71220.905
4716.37520.387
4816.03519.721
4915.73919.223
5015.43518.692
5115.15418.217
5214.90917.747
5314.62417.204
5414.31216.693
5513.92316.182
5613.61015.573
5713.26715.218
5813.01914.863
5912.74314.478
6012.39313.979
6112.13613.490
6211.88213.138
6311.61612.813
6411.37412.419
6511.20512.116
6610.94811.810
6710.71811.527
6810.43911.162
6910.18910.792
709.93710.529
719.75410.174
729.5279.893
739.2769.567
749.0319.280
758.8198.965
768.6018.687
778.3758.387
788.1478.114
797.9027.856
807.6427.521
817.4427.211
827.2126.920
837.0126.594
846.7266.325
856.4426.094
866.1655.787
875.9335.475
885.6615.228
895.4504.934
905.1464.613
914.7904.318
924.5153.975
934.2123.615
943.9303.187
953.4572.886
963.0762.546
972.6352.060
982.2771.651
991.4851.186


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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