Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Dec7.0632.1660.1120.0243.59195.683
Dec-Jan10.0672.7720.1230.0524.496115.632
Dec-Feb12.2463.4390.1910.0705.534126.438

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108.37926.610
206.18917.098
304.99512.717
404.1359.579
503.4387.430
602.8545.600
702.3214.236
801.7903.013
901.2021.781

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
116.68979.378
213.96856.197
312.70249.044
411.48143.831
510.77640.317
610.27535.869
79.61133.020
89.13830.544
98.70328.240
108.37926.610
118.06025.318
127.77323.953
137.47422.957
147.24521.993
157.01220.969
166.82320.183
176.65619.294
186.50318.417
196.38417.671
206.18917.098
216.04816.557
225.90915.969
235.77215.567
245.62514.993
255.50914.640
265.40114.341
275.28813.894
285.19713.545
295.09513.147
304.99512.717
314.91012.332
324.81011.949
334.71811.651
344.62211.362
354.55710.972
364.47510.667
374.38610.367
384.29610.091
394.2109.868
404.1359.579
414.0419.304
423.9489.103
433.8768.936
443.8108.708
453.7338.507
463.6728.284
473.6258.084
483.5647.827
493.5157.635
503.4387.430
513.3837.246
523.3327.065
533.2736.855
543.2066.657
553.1476.459
563.0946.222
573.0346.084
582.9735.945
592.9135.795
602.8545.600
612.7985.409
622.7415.270
632.6905.142
642.6424.987
652.5864.867
662.5274.746
672.4724.634
682.4244.489
692.3714.341
702.3214.236
712.2704.094
722.2183.981
732.1773.849
742.1193.733
752.0633.605
762.0133.492
771.9663.370
781.9083.258
791.8453.151
801.7903.013
811.7392.885
821.6742.764
831.6332.627
841.5792.514
851.5302.416
861.4772.286
871.4182.153
881.3432.047
891.2641.920
901.2021.781
911.1441.651
921.0821.500
931.0181.340
940.9291.147
950.8341.010
960.7310.852
970.6000.624
980.4760.427
990.2730.198


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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