Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Feb2.3331.1580.7510.0551.14610.790
Feb-Mar4.62133.7692.0590.0895.10621.732
Feb-Apr7.26437.8513.4360.1246.18067.293

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105.76514.977
204.0689.171
303.1536.614
402.5064.851
502.0213.681
601.6122.714
701.2712.023
800.9221.420
900.5530.839

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.81749.954
210.83234.329
39.34629.521
48.16526.089
57.50323.715
67.03120.870
76.63219.046
86.32017.456
96.06615.999
105.76514.977
115.49514.174
125.31013.334
135.09812.719
144.92012.121
154.72911.496
164.56611.024
174.43510.482
184.3109.952
194.2019.508
204.0689.171
213.9738.852
223.8548.494
233.7488.270
243.6557.930
253.5747.728
263.4947.555
273.3947.290
283.3017.085
293.2216.863
303.1536.614
313.0746.396
322.9926.173
332.9326.004
342.8545.848
352.7935.624
362.7355.457
372.6725.287
382.6105.136
392.5655.011
402.5064.851
412.4504.698
422.3914.589
432.3454.496
442.2974.373
452.2524.263
462.2094.140
472.1554.034
482.1053.895
492.0623.790
502.0213.681
511.9803.583
521.9403.488
531.8903.373
541.8483.272
551.8023.161
561.7703.041
571.7422.969
581.6922.895
591.6522.819
601.6122.714
611.5802.618
621.5362.547
631.5062.481
641.4712.403
651.4362.342
661.4052.280
671.3712.223
681.3402.150
691.3082.076
701.2712.023
711.2301.952
721.2031.895
731.1641.830
741.1231.772
751.0891.709
761.0581.654
771.0221.594
780.9871.539
790.9551.487
800.9221.420
810.8871.359
820.8561.300
830.8281.235
840.7891.181
850.7531.135
860.7111.074
870.6721.012
880.6360.962
890.6020.904
900.5530.839
910.5040.780
920.4690.712
930.4230.640
940.3770.554
950.3280.494
960.2690.425
970.1880.328
980.1060.245
990.0000.152


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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