Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Feb2.3160.6670.0680.0551.03710.790
Feb-Mar4.38219.3650.1450.0893.59921.732
Feb-Apr7.00522.1550.1840.1244.54567.293

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.25714.977
201.4949.171
301.0906.614
400.8174.851
500.6083.681
600.4412.714
700.2972.023
800.1591.420
900.0000.839

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15.79149.954
24.51234.329
33.73629.521
43.39026.089
53.12323.715
62.87020.870
72.65219.046
82.50317.456
92.37115.999
102.25714.977
112.12414.174
122.03813.334
131.93112.719
141.85312.121
151.77311.496
161.70511.024
171.64310.482
181.5869.952
191.5469.508
201.4949.171
211.4438.852
221.4018.494
231.3618.270
241.3227.930
251.2867.728
261.2447.555
271.2047.290
281.1657.085
291.1286.863
301.0906.614
311.0586.396
321.0276.173
331.0026.004
340.9765.848
350.9475.624
360.9185.457
370.8965.287
380.8715.136
390.8465.011
400.8174.851
410.7934.698
420.7724.589
430.7494.496
440.7314.373
450.7124.263
460.6904.140
470.6704.034
480.6503.895
490.6293.790
500.6083.681
510.5913.583
520.5763.488
530.5593.373
540.5433.272
550.5253.161
560.5093.041
570.4892.969
580.4712.895
590.4552.819
600.4412.714
610.4262.618
620.4102.547
630.3952.481
640.3792.403
650.3622.342
660.3512.280
670.3382.223
680.3272.150
690.3132.076
700.2972.023
710.2821.952
720.2691.895
730.2571.830
740.2441.772
750.2321.709
760.2161.654
770.2001.594
780.1851.539
790.1711.487
800.1591.420
810.1431.359
820.1251.300
830.1121.235
840.0981.181
850.0851.135
860.0671.074
870.0501.012
880.0320.962
890.0160.904
900.0000.839
910.0000.780
920.0000.712
930.0000.640
940.0000.554
950.0000.494
960.0000.425
970.0000.328
980.0000.245
990.0000.152


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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