Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Mar2.06618.6980.0770.1062.56210.942
Mar-Apr4.68921.4880.1160.1843.50756.503
Mar-May8.78924.2080.1330.4614.52468.833

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.58117.900
202.54511.004
301.9737.979
401.5825.900
501.2654.523
601.0063.389
700.7892.579
800.5781.875
900.3341.199

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.83860.036
26.70241.093
35.82235.302
45.25031.181
54.73228.335
64.42024.931
74.07022.751
83.90720.854
93.75119.117
103.58117.900
113.44516.944
123.30815.945
133.21715.214
143.10714.503
153.01313.762
162.90513.201
172.79512.557
182.70411.930
192.63411.404
202.54511.004
212.48910.627
222.40510.202
232.3319.937
242.2719.536
252.2119.296
262.1609.092
272.1188.778
282.0678.535
292.0098.273
301.9737.979
311.9347.722
321.8847.458
331.8467.260
341.8077.076
351.7716.811
361.7326.613
371.6986.414
381.6606.236
391.6226.088
401.5825.900
411.5495.720
421.5055.592
431.4715.481
441.4355.337
451.4035.208
461.3685.062
471.3414.939
481.3224.775
491.2934.651
501.2654.523
511.2424.408
521.2084.296
531.1794.161
541.1564.042
551.1353.913
561.1123.772
571.0873.687
581.0573.601
591.0293.511
601.0063.389
610.9813.275
620.9603.193
630.9393.115
640.9163.024
650.8912.953
660.8732.880
670.8532.814
680.8312.728
690.8112.641
700.7892.579
710.7722.496
720.7502.430
730.7242.354
740.7042.286
750.6842.212
760.6622.148
770.6402.078
780.6172.014
790.5951.953
800.5781.875
810.5581.803
820.5351.735
830.5071.659
840.4851.597
850.4591.543
860.4301.472
870.4021.399
880.3821.342
890.3581.274
900.3341.199
910.3051.130
920.2751.051
930.2490.967
940.2170.868
950.1900.798
960.1540.719
970.1100.606
980.0460.511
990.0000.403


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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