Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Apr2.6444.0821.3770.2321.0746.836
Apr-May6.7678.0762.5080.4812.24257.640
Apr-Jun15.00766.95918.9950.78511.146122.559

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1025.29428.850
2017.54817.697
3013.21312.815
4010.2679.464
507.9947.248
606.2795.425
704.9464.124
803.6662.996
902.3071.912

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
164.39997.823
252.41566.617
343.77257.148
439.34550.426
535.52745.791
632.88940.257
730.55836.718
828.32333.639
926.65430.822
1025.29428.850
1124.19627.302
1223.22525.685
1322.50324.503
1421.49423.353
1520.69022.153
1620.03921.247
1719.35520.207
1818.70419.192
1918.13318.343
2017.54817.697
2117.02417.087
2216.60916.402
2316.09315.974
2415.57715.326
2515.11514.940
2614.67514.610
2714.26014.103
2813.97613.712
2913.61113.290
3013.21312.815
3112.86612.401
3212.55111.976
3312.17311.655
3411.89211.359
3511.59110.932
3611.34810.614
3711.07010.293
3810.82710.006
3910.5429.767
4010.2679.464
419.9599.175
429.7208.968
439.4648.791
449.2308.558
459.0228.350
468.8018.116
478.5607.917
488.3447.654
498.1877.455
507.9947.248
517.7877.063
527.6116.884
537.4076.667
547.2256.476
557.0626.267
566.8696.041
576.7345.904
586.6245.766
596.4625.621
606.2795.425
616.1655.243
626.0225.110
635.8874.985
645.7444.839
655.6234.724
665.5104.608
675.3714.501
685.2074.363
695.0864.223
704.9464.124
714.8043.991
724.6893.885
734.5393.762
744.4213.654
754.2793.536
764.1733.432
774.0483.320
783.9123.217
793.7823.121
803.6662.996
813.5632.880
823.4302.771
833.2862.649
843.1512.549
852.9732.463
862.8372.349
872.7042.232
882.5982.140
892.4572.031
902.3071.912
912.1261.802
922.0071.674
931.8531.541
941.7221.382
951.5581.270
961.3701.144
971.1800.964
980.9610.812
990.7070.640


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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