Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
May4.1002.7200.0170.2491.01650.804
May-Jun12.35558.40012.3340.55310.097115.723
May-Jul20.50167.74313.4621.02215.065169.473

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013.05441.675
208.68825.981
306.41019.011
404.99114.178
503.86810.952
602.9778.273
702.2286.345
801.5444.656
900.8233.014

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
133.283134.817
226.53593.365
322.29580.576
419.88471.432
518.10165.096
616.66757.492
715.39652.605
814.28548.340
913.63944.424
1013.05441.675
1112.46139.512
1211.82137.247
1311.26535.589
1410.67933.973
1510.30632.284
169.98231.007
179.54829.536
189.28628.101
198.90726.897
208.68825.981
218.39725.114
228.11224.140
237.89223.529
247.61622.605
257.40622.054
267.18921.582
276.99520.858
286.79420.298
296.59819.692
306.41019.011
316.26718.417
326.11017.805
335.94117.344
345.79216.917
355.64916.302
365.50715.842
375.40015.378
385.26014.963
395.14014.618
404.99114.178
414.88313.759
424.74713.459
434.63613.201
444.51812.862
454.41712.560
464.29012.219
474.16111.929
484.06911.545
493.96411.254
503.86810.952
513.75710.681
523.65210.418
533.57410.100
543.4759.820
553.3919.514
563.3049.181
573.2328.980
583.1498.776
593.0628.563
602.9778.273
612.9088.004
622.8367.808
632.7537.624
642.6737.407
652.5837.236
662.4977.064
672.4336.905
682.3696.700
692.2986.493
702.2286.345
712.1566.146
722.0915.988
732.0235.805
741.9575.644
751.9095.467
761.8415.311
771.7715.143
781.7044.989
791.6054.844
801.5444.656
811.4744.482
821.4024.318
831.3304.134
841.2743.982
851.1773.852
861.1153.679
871.0513.503
880.9773.363
890.8993.196
900.8233.014
910.7482.847
920.6502.651
930.5902.447
940.5012.202
950.4002.029
960.2531.834
970.1491.553
980.0001.316
990.0001.045


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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