Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jul8.1469.3431.1270.4694.96853.750
Jul-Aug17.76618.1241.9441.14911.47182.894
Jul-Sep28.91522.8872.4653.01516.463120.698

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1072.24861.917
2056.84542.620
3047.41732.755
4040.06225.358
5033.56720.165
6028.37315.684
7023.76012.319
8018.9489.295
9013.1886.250

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1125.031129.180
2109.229105.764
398.57396.954
491.05589.914
586.22784.832
683.34077.968
780.37673.295
877.21369.048
974.80564.930
1072.24861.917
1170.42759.470
1268.02856.825
1366.41354.859
1465.05752.922
1563.31250.833
1661.76749.205
1760.52647.338
1859.08345.475
1958.02843.866
2056.84542.620
2155.71541.434
2254.85040.134
2353.71539.238
2452.78637.952
2551.74337.157
2650.87936.480
2750.06135.461
2849.24934.663
2948.37333.747
3047.41732.755
3146.52331.861
3245.85530.966
3345.04130.269
3444.30529.591
3543.71428.673
3642.99227.949
3742.13327.237
3841.43726.582
3940.65726.050
4040.06225.358
4139.07724.699
4238.45524.216
4337.78023.813
4437.15623.265
4536.47322.777
4635.90622.238
4735.15221.754
4834.65021.130
4934.15220.663
5033.56720.165
5133.05919.717
5232.54219.274
5332.01318.761
5431.47918.277
5531.13817.791
5630.49917.211
5729.88416.872
5829.36416.532
5928.91416.163
6028.37315.684
6127.83315.212
6227.50614.871
6326.99114.556
6426.41014.173
6525.99913.877
6625.54013.578
6725.01513.301
6824.63412.943
6924.24212.578
7023.76012.319
7123.36911.967
7222.88511.687
7322.37211.363
7421.85511.075
7521.39610.759
7620.81610.479
7720.27610.177
7819.8359.900
7919.3929.637
8018.9489.295
8118.5438.977
8217.9588.678
8317.4648.340
8416.8178.061
8516.1567.820
8615.6817.498
8715.0407.170
8814.4206.907
8913.8616.595
9013.1886.250
9112.5615.932
9211.9555.559
9311.2755.165
9410.4634.690
959.6734.353
968.8923.967
977.9103.407
986.8732.928
994.9862.370


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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