Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1959) (GL)
Aug9.83212.8486.2891.2207.84123.623
Aug-Sep21.05220.61410.8251.98413.27987.649
Aug-Oct32.35827.20014.2152.96717.928131.754

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1068.73670.254
2053.85648.885
3044.36437.566
4036.85028.949
5030.90322.866
6026.17817.621
7021.58413.703
8016.84310.211
9012.0176.741

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1118.957138.499
2102.315115.489
392.750106.677
488.43699.553
583.10694.358
678.43787.263
775.66082.376
873.15877.889
971.06373.496
1068.73670.254
1166.82767.603
1265.03664.718
1363.54762.561
1462.12460.425
1560.74258.110
1659.16356.297
1757.83854.208
1856.21052.112
1955.07450.296
2053.85648.885
2152.79047.537
2251.67746.056
2350.88345.032
2449.84543.558
2548.94442.646
2647.80941.867
2746.80140.694
2845.92039.773
2945.17938.715
3044.36437.566
3143.52336.530
3242.87135.491
3342.06734.680
3441.08033.890
3540.26832.820
3639.60331.977
3739.05731.146
3838.41330.380
3937.46429.758
4036.85028.949
4136.19928.178
4235.59727.612
4335.01027.140
4434.36326.499
4533.85125.927
4633.29525.295
4732.74024.728
4832.20723.997
4931.45623.450
5030.90322.866
5130.35722.341
5229.83221.822
5329.41421.221
5428.95320.654
5528.52120.086
5627.97519.406
5727.64919.010
5827.14118.612
5926.57818.181
6026.17817.621
6125.69017.070
6225.24816.673
6324.78616.305
6424.38915.859
6523.93315.515
6623.50215.166
6723.01014.844
6822.46514.427
6922.00114.004
7021.58413.703
7121.15013.295
7220.64312.971
7320.04412.595
7419.58312.262
7519.17111.897
7618.74611.574
7718.22111.226
7817.67010.907
7917.31310.604
8016.84310.211
8116.2939.847
8215.8929.503
8315.4059.117
8414.9958.797
8514.5108.523
8614.0758.156
8713.5617.783
8813.0477.485
8912.5117.131
9012.0176.741
9111.5706.382
9211.0045.962
9310.4545.521
949.6364.990
958.9124.615
968.1924.187
977.3533.571
986.4413.046
995.2072.441


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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