Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek ( Jan 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1953) (GL)
Jan2.9730.7150.5090.0281.01719.949
Jan-Feb5.2811.4660.6080.0462.21830.755
Jan-Mar7.5542.7740.8730.1526.25035.136

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.48516.495
205.37110.637
304.2717.823
403.4275.803
502.7704.437
602.3223.296
701.8622.465
801.4011.741
900.9281.038

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
115.62639.138
213.08131.021
311.37128.011
410.43325.631
59.79223.930
69.20721.659
78.57420.133
88.06318.762
97.74017.447
107.48516.495
117.20415.729
126.87214.908
136.63014.303
146.40513.711
156.15613.077
165.97312.587
175.81412.029
185.64211.476
195.50311.002
205.37110.637
215.22710.292
225.1089.916
234.9859.657
244.8469.289
254.7419.062
264.6538.870
274.5648.581
284.4368.356
294.3608.100
304.2717.823
314.1537.574
324.0647.327
333.9807.135
343.9026.949
353.8326.698
363.7276.501
373.6636.309
383.5736.132
393.4885.989
403.4275.803
413.3465.627
423.2795.499
433.1955.392
443.1315.247
453.0665.119
463.0104.977
472.9554.850
482.8904.687
492.8224.566
502.7704.437
512.7164.321
522.6704.207
532.6184.075
542.5793.952
552.5423.828
562.5013.680
572.4613.595
582.4193.509
592.3713.416
602.3223.296
612.2633.178
622.2093.093
632.1683.014
642.1292.920
652.0872.847
662.0392.773
671.9932.705
681.9392.617
691.9022.528
701.8622.465
711.8202.379
721.7552.312
731.7142.233
741.6702.164
751.6252.088
761.5872.021
771.5411.949
781.4911.884
791.4441.821
801.4011.741
811.3551.666
821.3121.596
831.2651.517
841.2261.452
851.1851.396
861.1341.322
871.0911.247
881.0391.187
890.9811.116
900.9281.038
910.8890.966
920.8390.883
930.7840.796
940.7250.691
950.6470.618
960.5700.534
970.4980.415
980.3940.315
990.2480.200


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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