Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek ( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Apr2.6241.3771.4860.2321.1476.836
Apr-May6.7012.5083.0220.4812.34757.640
Apr-Jun15.07018.99510.7400.78512.808122.559

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1014.24228.850
209.67217.697
307.24012.815
405.5579.464
504.3067.248
603.3435.425
702.6194.124
801.9142.996
901.1691.912

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
138.24597.823
230.67366.617
324.89157.148
422.27350.426
520.30945.791
618.41940.257
716.97336.718
815.69233.639
914.92730.822
1014.24228.850
1113.41327.302
1212.84925.685
1312.32624.503
1411.81823.353
1511.44322.153
1611.04821.247
1710.62320.207
1810.29519.192
199.94718.343
209.67217.697
219.37517.087
229.05516.402
238.82915.974
248.57215.326
258.27214.940
267.99614.610
277.83814.103
287.63013.712
297.42013.290
307.24012.815
317.05112.401
326.82911.976
336.63511.655
346.47811.359
356.32510.932
366.17910.614
376.02310.293
385.87910.006
395.7179.767
405.5579.464
415.4029.175
425.2518.968
435.1028.791
444.9958.558
454.8338.350
464.7278.116
474.5917.917
484.5077.654
494.4067.455
504.3067.248
514.1807.063
524.0766.884
533.9816.667
543.8726.476
553.7886.267
563.6906.041
573.6055.904
583.5115.766
593.4245.621
603.3435.425
613.2755.243
623.2035.110
633.1254.985
643.0504.839
652.9824.724
662.9024.608
672.8274.501
682.7624.363
692.6934.223
702.6194.124
712.5603.991
722.4933.885
732.4263.762
742.3463.654
752.2843.536
762.2013.432
772.1283.320
782.0613.217
791.9883.121
801.9142.996
811.8362.880
821.7642.771
831.6892.649
841.6052.549
851.5362.463
861.4622.349
871.3832.232
881.3122.140
891.2352.031
901.1691.912
911.0911.802
921.0201.674
930.9341.541
940.8571.382
950.7611.270
960.6551.144
970.5600.964
980.4260.812
990.2270.640


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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