Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek ( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
May4.0771.1311.5370.2491.19950.804
May-Jun12.44617.6189.2540.55311.661115.723
May-Jul20.78024.03015.2861.02218.481169.473

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1036.96141.675
2025.65625.981
3019.40919.011
4015.38114.178
5012.45010.952
609.8918.273
707.6656.345
805.6724.656
903.6933.014

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
186.692134.817
270.99793.365
362.53180.576
456.14771.432
550.93465.096
646.55657.492
743.56552.605
840.74248.340
938.85744.424
1036.96141.675
1135.48739.512
1234.22937.247
1332.82535.589
1431.32033.973
1530.29232.284
1629.12331.007
1728.34629.536
1827.45228.101
1926.57926.897
2025.65625.981
2125.00425.114
2224.24524.140
2323.49123.529
2422.86422.605
2522.28922.054
2621.69721.582
2721.12920.858
2820.48520.298
2919.84019.692
3019.40919.011
3119.07318.417
3218.64317.805
3318.22117.344
3417.82616.917
3517.37816.302
3616.91415.842
3716.51615.378
3816.12214.963
3915.70014.618
4015.38114.178
4115.05013.759
4214.81013.459
4314.52913.201
4414.20312.862
4513.88712.560
4613.57012.219
4713.28511.929
4812.95911.545
4912.72211.254
5012.45010.952
5112.19110.681
5211.89110.418
5311.59510.100
5411.3959.820
5511.0799.514
5610.8029.181
5710.5648.980
5810.3758.776
5910.1118.563
609.8918.273
619.5918.004
629.4227.808
639.1527.624
648.9537.407
658.7467.236
668.4817.064
678.2846.905
688.0496.700
697.8626.493
707.6656.345
717.5036.146
727.3365.988
737.1295.805
746.8995.644
756.7125.467
766.5035.311
776.3365.143
786.0914.989
795.8814.844
805.6724.656
815.4034.482
825.2334.318
835.0334.134
844.7853.982
854.6043.852
864.4133.679
874.2273.503
884.0823.363
893.8973.196
903.6933.014
913.4642.847
923.1912.651
932.9192.447
942.6222.202
952.3802.029
962.1101.834
971.7231.553
981.3981.316
990.9611.045


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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