Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1953) (GL)
Jan3.0600.8881.7930.0280.92619.949
Jan-Feb5.3742.1886.4420.0462.30430.755
Jan-Mar7.1473.6829.8170.1522.94135.136

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1017.58716.495
2013.14810.637
3010.6077.823
408.7075.803
507.2384.437
606.0653.296
704.9952.465
803.8671.741
902.6601.038

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
132.44639.138
228.32731.021
325.73128.011
423.66425.631
522.48823.930
620.91821.659
719.84520.133
819.07318.762
918.23617.447
1017.58716.495
1116.91915.729
1216.38114.908
1315.76114.303
1415.25913.711
1514.84913.077
1614.51112.587
1714.13212.029
1813.73011.476
1913.51111.002
2013.14810.637
2112.93710.292
2212.6419.916
2312.4009.657
2412.1699.289
2511.8719.062
2611.5508.870
2711.3238.581
2811.0638.356
2910.8498.100
3010.6077.823
3110.3897.574
3210.1847.327
3310.0197.135
349.8066.949
359.6186.698
369.4276.501
379.2436.309
389.0986.132
398.8885.989
408.7075.803
418.5235.627
428.3435.499
438.1875.392
448.0235.247
457.8775.119
467.7724.977
477.6354.850
487.4734.687
497.3564.566
507.2384.437
517.1104.321
526.9404.207
536.8124.075
546.6883.952
556.5753.828
566.4683.680
576.3763.595
586.2633.509
596.1773.416
606.0653.296
615.9593.178
625.8553.093
635.7543.014
645.6662.920
655.5692.847
665.4362.773
675.3202.705
685.1932.617
695.0782.528
704.9952.465
714.8852.379
724.7882.312
734.6692.233
744.5322.164
754.3962.088
764.2832.021
774.1661.949
784.0571.884
793.9621.821
803.8671.741
813.7701.666
823.6401.596
833.5241.517
843.4271.452
853.3101.396
863.2051.322
873.0801.247
882.9451.187
892.8131.116
902.6601.038
912.5310.966
922.3990.883
932.2700.796
942.1390.691
951.9800.618
961.7740.534
971.5910.415
981.3980.315
991.0410.200


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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