Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek ( Jan 2012 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1953) (GL)
Jan3.0401.7931.0840.0281.00219.949
Jan-Feb5.3916.4422.2420.0462.71430.755
Jan-Mar7.1909.81734.8530.1523.62035.136

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.04616.495
207.30110.637
305.8337.823
404.6755.803
503.8184.437
603.2103.296
702.6002.465
801.9821.741
901.3441.038

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
120.25539.138
217.16131.021
315.00128.011
413.94625.631
513.01923.930
612.13521.659
711.41920.133
810.79618.762
910.37917.447
1010.04616.495
119.66915.729
129.24314.908
138.93314.303
148.66113.711
158.27913.077
168.01412.587
177.81312.029
187.62511.476
197.47311.002
207.30110.637
217.08410.292
226.9469.916
236.7699.657
246.5779.289
256.4249.062
266.3218.870
276.2178.581
286.0528.356
295.9318.100
305.8337.823
315.6937.574
325.5337.327
335.4237.135
345.3136.949
355.1946.698
365.0946.501
374.9896.309
384.8946.132
394.7755.989
404.6755.803
414.5895.627
424.4815.499
434.3825.392
444.3085.247
454.2235.119
464.1514.977
474.0564.850
483.9864.687
493.8924.566
503.8184.437
513.7514.321
523.6854.207
533.6204.075
543.5703.952
553.5133.828
563.4503.680
573.3963.595
583.3233.509
593.2623.416
603.2103.296
613.1463.178
623.0773.093
633.0273.014
642.9732.920
652.8992.847
662.8382.773
672.7782.705
682.7282.617
692.6552.528
702.6002.465
712.5382.379
722.4752.312
732.4092.233
742.3442.164
752.2802.088
762.2282.021
772.1751.949
782.1111.884
792.0351.821
801.9821.741
811.9061.666
821.8651.596
831.8141.517
841.7421.452
851.6761.396
861.6151.322
871.5651.247
881.4821.187
891.4101.116
901.3441.038
911.2820.966
921.2090.883
931.1430.796
941.0520.691
950.9590.618
960.8580.534
970.7550.415
980.6280.315
990.4550.200


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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