Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10324.686374.615
20277.663316.836
30245.909278.884
40217.139243.346
50193.652212.417
60171.357179.481
70148.773149.099
80124.243116.054
9094.99176.322

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1459.553520.318
2421.385473.985
3396.761455.781
4379.440440.785
5366.322429.652
6353.703414.112
7343.358403.133
8337.068392.817
9330.876382.455
10324.686374.615
11319.105368.066
12313.917360.783
13309.056355.216
14305.142349.597
15299.396343.368
16295.241338.383
17290.635332.511
18286.490326.471
19282.064321.103
20277.663316.836
21273.903312.682
22270.403308.019
23267.847304.732
24264.870299.903
25261.872296.851
26258.373294.208
27255.346290.153
28252.098286.908
29248.384283.106
30245.909278.884
31243.397274.985
32240.975270.988
33237.746267.804
34235.036264.642
35232.613260.261
36229.519256.723
37226.710253.159
38223.555249.806
39220.493247.029
40217.139243.346
41214.789239.749
42212.281237.061
43209.275234.780
44207.012231.624
45204.612228.760
46202.414225.526
47200.501222.566
48197.926218.661
49195.664215.675
50193.652212.417
51191.127209.430
52189.325206.414
53187.439202.849
54185.763199.402
55183.532195.866
56181.131191.525
57179.089188.931
58176.351186.289
59174.155183.363
60171.357179.481
61168.597175.559
62166.246172.665
63164.627169.938
64162.949166.558
65160.803163.901
66158.419161.163
67156.460158.583
68153.618155.188
69150.695151.661
70148.773149.099
71146.173145.561
72143.918142.698
73141.885139.308
74139.475136.248
75137.128132.823
76134.545129.733
77131.920126.334
78129.317123.165
79127.036120.104
80124.243116.054
81121.791112.208
82119.294108.515
83116.879104.283
84114.203100.708
85111.14897.587
86108.32493.356
87105.17188.962
88101.96885.403
8998.13181.112
9094.99176.322
9190.49671.840
9286.23966.544
9382.53460.911
9478.22554.094
9573.77549.257
9667.04743.759
9761.00935.924
9853.25929.408
9941.58222.162


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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