Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10218.681289.408
20175.641237.705
30148.385203.774
40123.857172.087
50102.949144.689
6085.731115.959
7069.88790.319
8052.18664.218
9034.30936.784

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1339.997419.809
2302.677378.344
3286.391362.051
4267.229348.630
5252.725338.666
6246.162324.758
7238.143314.932
8230.248305.699
9223.262296.425
10218.681289.408
11212.565283.547
12207.595277.029
13203.771272.047
14199.607267.018
15195.356261.444
16191.254256.983
17186.843251.729
18182.858246.324
19179.341241.521
20175.641237.705
21173.151233.988
22170.619229.817
23166.802226.878
24163.574222.559
25161.051219.831
26158.337217.468
27155.010213.843
28152.451210.943
29150.517207.546
30148.385203.774
31145.876200.292
32142.908196.723
33140.227193.882
34137.675191.060
35134.787187.152
36132.189183.998
37129.616180.823
38127.571177.836
39125.939175.364
40123.857172.087
41121.427168.889
42119.388166.501
43117.386164.475
44115.209161.674
45113.203159.135
46110.999156.270
47108.803153.650
48106.926150.199
49104.453147.562
50102.949144.689
51100.992142.060
5299.630139.408
5397.874136.279
5495.939133.260
5594.233130.170
5692.658126.386
5791.085124.132
5889.662121.840
5987.545119.308
6085.731115.959
6184.363112.590
6282.624110.113
6380.998107.788
6479.550104.915
6577.703102.668
6675.932100.360
6774.62698.196
6873.11495.360
6971.44492.434
7069.88790.319
7168.21987.418
7266.66985.087
7365.02382.345
7463.27479.890
7561.53277.165
7659.46874.729
7757.40472.074
7855.75569.624
7953.99467.281
8052.18664.218
8150.50961.350
8248.82458.635
8346.74955.574
8445.30153.030
8543.36350.842
8641.79147.925
8740.15044.957
8837.98642.601
8936.02239.817
9034.30936.784
9132.39634.017
9230.55830.840
9328.17027.568
9425.46523.756
9522.98521.150
9620.08618.287
9717.14114.389
9814.23411.313
998.5118.078


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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