Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10118.309180.477
2091.927143.917
3074.268120.046
4062.23597.989
5051.85179.312
6042.94460.482
7034.89644.746
8026.14930.136
9017.69816.413

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1205.317272.884
2176.249243.493
3159.362231.945
4150.595222.433
5143.223215.372
6136.856205.517
7131.438198.555
8127.021192.014
9123.544185.446
10118.309180.477
11114.379176.327
12111.666171.714
13108.854168.188
14105.928164.630
15103.369160.688
16100.823157.534
1798.597153.820
1895.989150.002
1993.850146.611
2091.927143.917
2189.901141.296
2288.041138.355
2386.539136.284
2484.886133.242
2582.580131.322
2680.858129.660
2778.934127.112
2877.167125.075
2975.807122.691
3074.268120.046
3172.588117.608
3271.426115.112
3370.331113.126
3469.302111.157
3568.185108.434
3666.707106.240
3765.417104.035
3864.255101.964
3963.202100.253
4062.23597.989
4161.21495.785
4260.33194.142
4359.05992.752
4458.15190.832
4557.09889.097
4655.94087.144
4754.88485.363
4853.68683.024
4952.69681.245
5051.85179.312
5150.95677.550
5249.87375.779
5348.95773.700
5448.15171.703
5547.40269.670
5646.70967.197
5745.75065.732
5844.93764.250
5943.91362.621
6042.94460.482
6142.13458.347
6241.30756.790
6340.25155.337
6439.51253.556
6538.64652.172
6637.69850.761
6737.00249.448
6836.17547.741
6935.52145.996
7034.89644.746
7133.91943.047
7232.90241.695
7332.11040.120
7431.22938.724
7530.07637.191
7629.44535.834
7728.67134.371
7827.71533.035
7926.93331.770
8026.14930.136
8125.27528.625
8224.41227.212
8323.68825.639
8422.86524.347
8522.03023.247
8621.40521.797
8720.71420.339
8819.62819.194
8918.68917.855
9017.69816.413
9116.74715.112
9215.52913.634
9314.42112.128
9413.18910.394
9512.0829.220
9610.5587.940
979.0716.213
987.4504.862
995.3483.452


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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