Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1074.834123.276
2056.94188.277
3046.08368.147
4037.79652.069
5031.52640.449
6026.46030.395
7021.50022.968
8017.17316.499
9011.72310.314

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1143.605221.204
2125.349189.435
3112.114177.045
4102.816166.898
597.008159.410
692.272149.038
786.876141.779
882.314135.021
978.890128.304
1074.834123.276
1172.471119.117
1270.099114.539
1367.920111.077
1465.944107.617
1563.957103.826
1662.273100.827
1760.94097.338
1859.71493.802
1958.29690.705
2056.94188.277
2155.50885.942
2254.39383.357
2353.22181.559
2452.20978.952
2550.98477.328
2650.01675.936
2748.88873.828
2847.89272.165
2946.86970.244
3046.08368.147
3145.14066.244
3244.44264.328
3343.36862.827
3442.59461.359
3541.76459.363
3640.88957.782
3740.02556.220
3839.34954.776
3938.64953.601
4037.79652.069
4137.10550.604
4236.57849.529
4335.91648.630
4435.29047.406
4534.74746.315
4633.99645.106
4733.38644.020
4832.78342.619
4932.07841.571
5031.52640.449
5130.94039.443
5230.30338.446
5329.78837.293
5429.30036.204
5528.89935.114
5628.32633.811
5727.86333.051
5827.36832.291
5926.86831.465
6026.46030.395
6126.00129.344
6225.47628.587
6325.04127.887
6424.63627.039
6524.14426.386
6623.61525.726
6723.18625.116
6822.74224.330
6922.06823.534
7021.50022.968
7121.08522.202
7220.59721.597
7320.08820.895
7419.75620.276
7519.26319.599
7618.94319.001
7718.40318.358
7818.06317.772
7917.68317.217
8017.17316.499
8116.69715.835
8216.17815.213
8315.65514.517
8415.16113.942
8514.57813.451
8614.01212.798
8713.39912.136
8812.91111.612
8912.34910.991
9011.72310.314
9111.1099.692
9210.4418.973
939.5878.223
948.9847.332
958.3686.709
967.4256.008
976.4225.014
985.2124.186
993.7223.254


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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