Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1038.25356.093
2028.83540.527
3023.34232.249
4019.08925.762
5015.77220.987
6012.93116.660
7010.65413.237
808.1979.985
905.4466.469

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
176.216110.401
265.02891.150
356.05584.025
452.03278.372
549.03774.310
645.59568.845
743.23565.133
841.21161.761
939.68358.490
1038.25356.093
1136.75254.143
1235.66752.030
1334.91050.455
1433.76748.900
1532.79447.217
1631.87045.901
1731.18144.386
1830.43442.868
1929.62141.551
2028.83540.527
2128.08539.548
2227.35138.471
2326.73837.726
2426.19636.651
2525.61435.984
2625.08635.414
2724.75434.554
2824.21333.877
2923.74833.098
3023.34232.249
3122.84531.480
3222.41030.707
3321.91830.102
3421.48929.511
3520.92428.707
3620.53228.070
3720.10927.440
3819.69826.857
3919.38626.382
4019.08925.762
4118.71125.167
4218.31424.730
4317.98824.363
4417.72623.863
4517.32523.416
4616.94522.920
4716.66122.472
4816.36221.892
4916.04621.455
5015.77220.987
5115.50920.565
5215.17220.144
5314.90119.656
5414.64619.191
5514.37618.724
5614.03918.160
5713.74117.830
5813.46617.497
5913.20517.134
6012.93116.660
6112.76216.190
6212.55715.849
6312.35915.532
6412.12915.144
6511.91414.844
6611.63314.539
6711.37814.254
6811.17413.885
6910.95013.507
7010.65413.237
7110.41612.868
7210.12312.573
739.87212.229
749.60811.923
759.40911.584
769.18911.282
778.97010.954
788.74110.652
798.48310.363
808.1979.985
817.9729.631
827.7599.295
837.4888.914
847.2178.595
856.9508.318
866.6127.946
876.2697.563
885.9817.254
895.6586.882
905.4466.469
915.1546.082
924.8075.623
934.4285.132
944.0644.529
953.5974.092
963.1453.584
972.4912.828
982.0322.159
990.9371.351


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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