Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1080.750
2052.725
3039.725
4030.432
5024.065
6018.644
7014.644
8011.047
907.435

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1224.910
2164.722
3144.951
4130.435
5120.179
6107.651
799.467
892.232
985.514
1080.750
1176.974
1272.993
1370.059
1467.185
1564.164
1661.867
1759.211
1856.604
1954.405
2052.725
2151.130
2249.330
2348.198
2446.480
2545.451
2644.569
2743.210
2842.157
2941.014
3039.725
3138.596
3237.429
3336.548
3435.731
3534.548
3633.662
3732.765
3831.959
3931.289
4030.432
4129.613
4229.026
4328.520
4427.853
4527.258
4626.585
4726.010
4825.247
4924.668
5024.065
5123.523
5222.996
5322.356
5421.791
5521.171
5620.498
5720.088
5819.673
5919.237
6018.644
6118.091
6217.688
6317.307
6416.858
6516.505
6616.147
6715.816
6815.388
6914.954
7014.644
7114.225
7213.892
7313.505
7413.163
7512.787
7612.454
7712.094
7811.765
7911.453
8011.047
8110.670
8210.314
839.914
849.582
859.296
868.915
878.525
888.214
897.843
907.435
917.058
926.616
936.149
945.586
955.186
964.728
974.065
983.496
992.833


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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