Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10483.209437.287
20431.707371.658
30395.134328.560
40363.678288.213
50335.364253.101
60306.231215.692
70274.487181.114
80236.910143.291
90185.46197.059

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1615.743602.828
2580.956550.185
3556.061529.501
4537.506512.463
5524.499499.814
6514.139482.159
7505.445469.686
8497.094457.965
9488.667446.193
10483.209437.287
11475.688429.848
12470.287421.575
13464.722415.251
14458.659408.868
15453.487401.793
16447.864396.130
17442.700389.461
18438.099382.600
19434.878376.503
20431.707371.658
21427.026366.940
22423.408361.644
23420.937357.912
24417.061352.427
25412.847348.962
26409.120345.960
27405.473341.356
28401.004337.671
29397.696333.354
30395.134328.560
31391.434324.133
32389.006319.595
33386.685315.980
34383.211312.390
35379.708307.416
36376.502303.399
37373.382299.354
38370.019295.547
39366.964292.394
40363.678288.213
41360.314284.130
42357.978281.078
43354.662278.489
44352.527274.906
45349.878271.655
46347.182267.984
47343.806264.623
48340.867260.191
49338.341256.800
50335.364253.101
51332.357249.710
52329.188246.285
53326.294242.237
54323.783238.323
55320.167234.307
56317.469229.376
57314.948226.430
58312.298223.428
59309.106220.103
60306.231215.692
61302.743211.234
62300.131207.943
63297.627204.842
64294.467200.997
65291.794197.974
66288.373194.857
67285.269191.921
68282.390188.053
69278.510184.035
70274.487181.114
71271.038177.078
72267.783173.812
73264.728169.940
74260.599166.443
75256.819162.526
76253.178158.990
77248.790155.096
78244.555151.461
79240.238147.947
80236.910143.291
81233.756138.863
82229.433134.604
83225.302129.713
84220.297125.573
85214.830121.953
86210.015117.032
87203.370111.905
88196.820107.742
89190.800102.705
90185.46197.059
91179.79491.752
92172.21685.448
93165.35778.699
94155.54570.463
95143.29464.567
96134.36557.810
97118.93048.062
98101.63039.831
9971.19230.524


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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