Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


Return to catchment list
Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10468.052374.615
20408.784316.836
30369.599278.884
40338.205243.346
50311.272212.417
60283.512179.481
70253.505149.099
80219.857116.054
90176.67076.322

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1622.719520.318
2580.978473.985
3550.200455.781
4534.859440.785
5515.825429.652
6502.250414.112
7492.179403.133
8483.182392.817
9475.850382.455
10468.052374.615
11459.948368.066
12453.400360.783
13446.034355.216
14440.795349.597
15434.790343.368
16428.400338.383
17423.091332.511
18418.237326.471
19414.476321.103
20408.784316.836
21404.690312.682
22400.226308.019
23396.324304.732
24392.561299.903
25388.738296.851
26384.234294.208
27380.694290.153
28377.411286.908
29373.323283.106
30369.599278.884
31366.619274.985
32363.409270.988
33360.139267.804
34357.361264.642
35353.916260.261
36350.589256.723
37347.277253.159
38344.026249.806
39341.433247.029
40338.205243.346
41336.277239.749
42332.657237.061
43329.674234.780
44327.140231.624
45324.465228.760
46322.011225.526
47318.934222.566
48316.147218.661
49313.682215.675
50311.272212.417
51308.662209.430
52305.934206.414
53303.091202.849
54299.817199.402
55297.387195.866
56294.671191.525
57292.208188.931
58289.990186.289
59286.588183.363
60283.512179.481
61280.553175.559
62277.995172.665
63274.847169.938
64271.891166.558
65268.891163.901
66265.410161.163
67262.915158.583
68259.799155.188
69256.226151.661
70253.505149.099
71251.072145.561
72248.407142.698
73244.577139.308
74241.084136.248
75237.096132.823
76234.296129.733
77230.835126.334
78227.583123.165
79223.324120.104
80219.857116.054
81216.455112.208
82212.811108.515
83209.423104.283
84205.372100.708
85200.31997.587
86196.14793.356
87191.02488.962
88186.10685.403
89181.75081.112
90176.67076.322
91171.32871.840
92165.19866.544
93160.21660.911
94152.92654.094
95144.80949.257
96134.86043.759
97125.17235.924
98114.17429.408
9999.08422.162


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence