Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10249.158289.408
20205.598237.705
30174.507203.774
40148.814172.087
50126.124144.689
60106.213115.959
7086.98390.319
8067.30164.218
9046.35036.784

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1374.227419.809
2332.793378.344
3314.978362.051
4300.863348.630
5287.918338.666
6277.658324.758
7270.680314.932
8261.669305.699
9255.151296.425
10249.158289.408
11243.921283.547
12237.657277.029
13232.951272.047
14227.299267.018
15222.609261.444
16218.921256.983
17214.339251.729
18211.499246.324
19208.712241.521
20205.598237.705
21201.985233.988
22198.464229.817
23195.422226.878
24192.700222.559
25189.080219.831
26185.447217.468
27183.031213.843
28179.688210.943
29177.053207.546
30174.507203.774
31171.446200.292
32168.897196.723
33165.794193.882
34163.234191.060
35160.743187.152
36158.054183.998
37155.767180.823
38153.060177.836
39150.864175.364
40148.814172.087
41145.904168.889
42144.002166.501
43141.065164.475
44138.372161.674
45135.792159.135
46133.869156.270
47131.930153.650
48130.386150.199
49128.023147.562
50126.124144.689
51124.260142.060
52122.684139.408
53120.714136.279
54118.647133.260
55116.415130.170
56115.030126.386
57113.078124.132
58110.661121.840
59108.847119.308
60106.213115.959
61104.625112.590
62102.466110.113
63100.693107.788
6498.527104.915
6596.717102.668
6694.667100.360
6792.70798.196
6890.54095.360
6988.44392.434
7086.98390.319
7185.56787.418
7283.77885.087
7381.36682.345
7479.27679.890
7577.22877.165
7675.45374.729
7773.61472.074
7871.40169.624
7969.61967.281
8067.30164.218
8165.35461.350
8263.52658.635
8361.31255.574
8458.84453.030
8557.03450.842
8654.80447.925
8752.63344.957
8850.52342.601
8948.46139.817
9046.35036.784
9144.03334.017
9240.69230.840
9338.13227.568
9435.45623.756
9531.74121.150
9628.06518.287
9723.68214.389
9819.72011.313
9913.2918.078


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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