Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10145.524180.477
20116.973143.917
3096.028120.046
4081.46097.989
5068.80379.312
6057.53960.482
7047.05544.746
8036.40730.136
9025.38916.413

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1238.551272.884
2211.067243.493
3192.387231.945
4180.547222.433
5172.280215.372
6165.273205.517
7160.334198.555
8154.904192.014
9150.108185.446
10145.524180.477
11141.903176.327
12139.049171.714
13136.104168.188
14133.078164.630
15129.743160.688
16127.249157.534
17124.110153.820
18121.901150.002
19119.209146.611
20116.973143.917
21113.943141.296
22111.641138.355
23109.582136.284
24107.790133.242
25105.729131.322
26103.737129.660
27101.880127.112
2899.520125.075
2997.452122.691
3096.028120.046
3194.158117.608
3292.538115.112
3390.878113.126
3489.720111.157
3588.006108.434
3686.678106.240
3785.279104.035
3883.974101.964
3982.481100.253
4081.46097.989
4180.12295.785
4278.89194.142
4377.78192.752
4476.32290.832
4575.04689.097
4673.74987.144
4772.42885.363
4871.25683.024
4969.96681.245
5068.80379.312
5167.72777.550
5266.52475.779
5365.44773.700
5464.66571.703
5563.40369.670
5662.25067.197
5761.08465.732
5859.84164.250
5958.70362.621
6057.53960.482
6156.36158.347
6255.36256.790
6354.46955.337
6453.24853.556
6551.95852.172
6650.82650.761
6749.89549.448
6848.85447.741
6948.00145.996
7047.05544.746
7146.05843.047
7245.02341.695
7343.98840.120
7443.12938.724
7541.90237.191
7640.79035.834
7739.61734.371
7838.67733.035
7937.44431.770
8036.40730.136
8135.40128.625
8234.36227.212
8333.45325.639
8432.43324.347
8531.39123.247
8629.89521.797
8728.84520.339
8827.73919.194
8926.58117.855
9025.38916.413
9124.10015.112
9222.63713.634
9321.11512.128
9419.58210.394
9517.7759.220
9616.1167.940
9714.4206.213
9812.1824.862
998.5993.452


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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