Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford



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Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford ( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10433.258428.528
20372.597354.971
30331.263307.997
40296.567265.501
50265.966230.083
60234.704194.330
70204.485163.327
80171.119131.654
90127.06495.342

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1607.560618.702
2547.499557.871
3518.046534.030
4501.150514.426
5487.892499.898
6472.705479.662
7459.849465.401
8448.090452.030
9441.225438.636
10433.258428.528
11426.035420.103
12418.627410.755
13412.259403.627
14405.637396.448
15399.531388.510
16393.509382.173
17387.708374.728
18383.451367.094
19378.829360.331
20372.597354.971
21368.508349.765
22364.802343.939
23360.814339.844
24357.142333.843
25353.266330.063
26347.600326.796
27342.645321.798
28339.484317.809
29334.854313.151
30331.263307.997
31327.315303.255
32324.106298.413
33321.137294.570
34317.150290.765
35313.943285.515
36310.533281.296
37305.775277.063
38303.014273.096
39299.752269.823
40296.567265.501
41294.112261.300
42291.371258.174
43287.993255.531
44284.159251.886
45281.547248.594
46278.741244.894
47276.021241.523
48272.711237.100
49269.109233.735
50265.966230.083
51263.475226.753
52260.361223.407
53256.917219.475
54252.913215.697
55249.550211.845
56246.696207.152
57243.657204.366
58240.216201.541
59237.265198.430
60234.704194.330
61232.228190.220
62229.193187.208
63226.679184.386
64223.517180.908
65220.626178.192
66217.738175.408
67214.221172.800
68210.630169.388
69207.000165.869
70204.485163.327
71201.510159.840
72198.239157.037
73195.178153.737
74191.453150.777
75188.418147.485
76183.651144.533
77180.010141.305
78176.690138.312
79174.513135.437
80171.119131.654
81165.625128.083
82162.116124.671
83158.249120.781
84154.974117.508
85151.087114.661
86146.381110.809
87140.607106.818
88136.486103.590
89131.96999.696
90127.06495.342
91122.17791.253
92115.99586.394
93108.74081.173
94101.37174.751
9594.67170.100
9686.13864.689
9775.38556.668
9861.03949.611
9943.13841.166


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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