Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford



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Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford ( Jan  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1064.82956.093
2050.11740.527
3040.74132.249
4034.52325.762
5028.96420.987
6024.36616.660
7020.36913.237
8016.1879.985
9011.3276.469

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1121.273110.401
2104.90991.150
392.98084.025
485.26578.372
580.31174.310
676.39168.845
772.79365.133
869.88561.761
967.14458.490
1064.82956.093
1163.14954.143
1261.47352.030
1359.38150.455
1458.03248.900
1556.57947.217
1655.33245.901
1754.30144.386
1853.00142.868
1951.38241.551
2050.11740.527
2148.91439.548
2247.90738.471
2346.81437.726
2445.97136.651
2545.17035.984
2644.32535.414
2743.43434.554
2842.50533.877
2941.81733.098
3040.74132.249
3140.10131.480
3239.28230.707
3338.70830.102
3438.02929.511
3537.40028.707
3636.72628.070
3736.16727.440
3835.57626.857
3934.92426.382
4034.52325.762
4133.96425.167
4233.30324.730
4332.64124.363
4432.08523.863
4531.58023.416
4630.96322.920
4730.36322.472
4829.95021.892
4929.35221.455
5028.96420.987
5128.41420.565
5227.92720.144
5327.54119.656
5427.01619.191
5526.41118.724
5625.88318.160
5725.33517.830
5825.05017.497
5924.66417.134
6024.36616.660
6123.94516.190
6223.56415.849
6323.15015.532
6422.73115.144
6522.26214.844
6621.84514.539
6721.48814.254
6821.07513.885
6920.70813.507
7020.36913.237
7119.96712.868
7219.54212.573
7319.12712.229
7418.71411.923
7518.34611.584
7617.91011.282
7717.47410.954
7816.95010.652
7916.51310.363
8016.1879.985
8115.8379.631
8215.2299.295
8314.6498.914
8414.1428.595
8513.7958.318
8613.2677.946
8712.7527.563
8812.3377.254
8911.8366.882
9011.3276.469
9110.8496.082
9210.3205.623
939.7005.132
949.0214.529
958.2894.092
967.4063.584
976.4792.828
985.2422.159
994.1051.351


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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