Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford



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Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford ( Jan 2010 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1044.23256.093
2033.67440.527
3027.25832.249
4022.44525.762
5018.71820.987
6015.45816.660
7012.81113.237
8010.0459.985
906.7586.469

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
187.422110.401
273.97591.150
364.84284.025
459.36678.372
556.24874.310
652.75368.845
750.10665.133
847.72161.761
945.95358.490
1044.23256.093
1142.84954.143
1241.44652.030
1340.33650.455
1439.29648.900
1538.23347.217
1637.25645.901
1736.34444.386
1835.66842.868
1934.62641.551
2033.67440.527
2132.81439.548
2231.94738.471
2331.29337.726
2430.56336.651
2529.95235.984
2629.40535.414
2729.02134.554
2828.44133.877
2928.00533.098
3027.25832.249
3126.68831.480
3226.25530.707
3325.76330.102
3425.10929.511
3524.62328.707
3624.15728.070
3723.68927.440
3823.17826.857
3922.81326.382
4022.44525.762
4122.11025.167
4221.62224.730
4321.21224.363
4420.88323.863
4520.53023.416
4620.16222.920
4719.85422.472
4819.51121.892
4919.18821.455
5018.71820.987
5118.40120.565
5218.02320.144
5317.66619.656
5417.37519.191
5516.97618.724
5616.68618.160
5716.40017.830
5816.07617.497
5915.76317.134
6015.45816.660
6115.23016.190
6215.00115.849
6314.78115.532
6414.49715.144
6514.24914.844
6613.94614.539
6713.67714.254
6813.36713.885
6913.07713.507
7012.81113.237
7112.56012.868
7212.20212.573
7311.95012.229
7411.60911.923
7511.33511.584
7611.09411.282
7710.88910.954
7810.56410.652
7910.32910.363
8010.0459.985
819.7369.631
829.4119.295
839.1318.914
848.8218.595
858.4148.318
868.0967.946
877.6827.563
887.3557.254
897.0216.882
906.7586.469
916.4806.082
926.0655.623
935.5925.132
945.1134.529
954.6994.092
964.0443.584
973.3812.828
982.7842.159
991.6251.351


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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