Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford



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Exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford ( Jan 2011 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10108.51456.093
2084.65840.527
3070.28832.249
4059.84625.762
5050.94020.987
6043.29316.660
7036.69513.237
8029.1729.985
9021.2476.469

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1194.785110.401
2164.34591.150
3148.57884.025
4136.57378.372
5130.67674.310
6125.00368.845
7119.36765.133
8115.16061.761
9111.31958.490
10108.51456.093
11104.79654.143
12101.73152.030
1399.30250.455
1496.77748.900
1594.38047.217
1692.43045.901
1790.17344.386
1888.44942.868
1986.25041.551
2084.65840.527
2183.05639.548
2281.33538.471
2379.67037.726
2478.49736.651
2577.03535.984
2675.43935.414
2774.00134.554
2872.73533.877
2971.56633.098
3070.28832.249
3169.15631.480
3268.05730.707
3366.92430.102
3465.78429.511
3564.89928.707
3663.76728.070
3762.82227.440
3861.94026.857
3960.90626.382
4059.84625.762
4158.86825.167
4257.82624.730
4356.73024.363
4455.97723.863
4555.24423.416
4654.38722.920
4753.64022.472
4852.58621.892
4951.83521.455
5050.94020.987
5149.93520.565
5249.04220.144
5348.35019.656
5447.48219.191
5546.86918.724
5646.22218.160
5745.49817.830
5844.70817.497
5943.95417.134
6043.29316.660
6142.61516.190
6241.79815.849
6341.17815.532
6440.66215.144
6540.00314.844
6639.23514.539
6738.55614.254
6837.89013.885
6937.28113.507
7036.69513.237
7136.12512.868
7235.35512.573
7334.68612.229
7433.98111.923
7533.22111.584
7632.46711.282
7731.48510.954
7830.64110.652
7929.92010.363
8029.1729.985
8128.5339.631
8227.7179.295
8327.0808.914
8426.1418.595
8525.4068.318
8624.6467.946
8723.9647.563
8823.1997.254
8922.2446.882
9021.2476.469
9120.5466.082
9219.5185.623
9318.4985.132
9417.3924.529
9516.1474.092
9614.7353.584
9713.4722.828
9811.2292.159
998.4171.351


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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