Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Probability distribution for Wonnangatta River at Waterford( Oct 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile62.95577.170
Median105.349144.689
Mean119.901155.687
75% Quartile164.646219.830
Interquartile Range101.690142.660

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1344.530419.809
2302.761378.344
3286.121362.051
4271.725348.630
5258.803338.666
6249.477324.758
7242.183314.932
8234.444305.699
9227.807296.425
10221.219289.408
11216.635283.547
12212.152277.029
13206.484272.047
14202.067267.018
15197.381261.444
16192.983256.983
17189.197251.729
18185.066246.324
19182.378241.521
20179.748237.705
21176.030233.988
22172.779229.817
23170.201226.878
24167.874222.559
25164.662219.831
26161.241217.468
27158.063213.843
28155.482210.943
29152.276207.546
30150.050203.774
31147.717200.292
32145.440196.723
33143.292193.882
34140.984191.060
35138.472187.152
36135.425183.998
37133.311180.823
38131.047177.836
39128.939175.364
40126.338172.087
41124.158168.889
42121.290166.501
43119.100164.475
44116.990161.674
45114.936159.135
46112.744156.270
47110.735153.650
48109.051150.199
49107.140147.562
50105.349144.689
51104.239142.060
52102.544139.408
53100.851136.279
5498.831133.260
5597.200130.170
5695.355126.386
5793.336124.132
5891.513121.840
5989.779119.308
6088.174115.959
6186.476112.590
6284.753110.113
6383.139107.788
6481.370104.915
6579.833102.668
6677.528100.360
6776.04498.196
6874.64395.360
6973.08992.434
7071.36290.319
7169.96387.418
7268.57085.087
7366.76482.345
7465.27979.890
7562.95277.165
7661.26274.729
7759.27172.074
7857.22369.624
7955.37167.281
8053.61664.218
8152.01561.350
8250.22258.635
8348.73455.574
8446.88453.030
8545.49150.842
8643.70047.925
8741.87744.957
8840.00042.601
8937.68339.817
9036.21436.784
9133.86934.017
9231.85830.840
9329.41427.568
9426.62623.756
9524.07021.150
9621.14818.287
9717.91214.389
9814.47111.313
999.3798.078


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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