Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Probability distribution for Wonnangatta River at Waterford(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile57.621
Median100.252
Mean131.085
75% Quartile168.769
Interquartile Range111.149

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1567.164
2451.624
3411.257
4380.134
5358.257
6329.435
7310.246
8293.077
9276.649
10264.748
11255.147
12244.825
13237.181
14229.677
15221.603
16215.320
17208.121
18200.937
19194.736
20189.929
21185.348
22180.322
23176.853
24171.861
25168.771
26166.134
27162.159
28159.038
29155.448
30151.545
31148.017
32144.474
33141.705
34139.000
35135.326
36132.421
37129.548
38126.894
39124.731
40121.911
41119.209
42117.223
43115.559
44113.289
45111.262
46109.009
47106.979
48104.349
49102.374
50100.252
5198.338
5296.435
5394.222
5492.121
5590.003
5687.453
5785.956
5884.450
5982.805
6080.658
6178.530
6276.985
6375.548
6473.791
6572.430
6671.044
6769.755
6868.079
6966.365
7065.135
7163.459
7262.121
7360.556
7459.161
7557.618
7656.244
7754.749
7853.371
7952.053
8050.329
8148.710
8247.172
8345.426
8443.964
8542.697
8640.989
8739.225
8837.803
8936.092
9034.184
9132.396
9230.272
9327.992
9425.185
9523.148
9620.770
9717.219
9814.060
9910.217


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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