Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Probability distribution for Wonnangatta River at Waterford(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile199.978147.490
Median279.888230.083
Mean288.303248.533
75% Quartile367.265330.061
Interquartile Range167.287182.571

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1624.487618.702
2567.198557.871
3534.103534.030
4515.764514.426
5503.098499.898
6488.919479.662
7475.588465.401
8464.022452.030
9457.025438.636
10449.049428.528
11440.463420.103
12434.352410.755
13427.088403.627
14421.556396.448
15416.016388.510
16409.710382.173
17403.479374.728
18398.265367.094
19392.858360.331
20388.441354.971
21382.991349.765
22378.324343.939
23375.094339.844
24371.981333.843
25367.287330.063
26361.770326.796
27357.476321.798
28353.970317.809
29349.322313.151
30345.307307.997
31341.865303.255
32339.140298.413
33334.638294.570
34330.956290.765
35327.944285.515
36324.177281.296
37319.953277.063
38316.620273.096
39313.892269.823
40311.101265.501
41308.373261.300
42305.026258.174
43301.390255.531
44298.077251.886
45295.498248.594
46292.336244.894
47289.478241.523
48286.260237.100
49283.066233.735
50279.888230.083
51276.254226.753
52272.971223.407
53269.879219.475
54266.444215.697
55263.112211.845
56260.306207.152
57256.499204.366
58253.113201.541
59250.002198.430
60247.622194.330
61244.858190.220
62242.169187.208
63239.150184.386
64236.441180.908
65233.216178.192
66230.623175.408
67227.101172.800
68223.262169.388
69219.669165.869
70217.063163.327
71213.384159.840
72210.132157.037
73206.496153.737
74203.710150.777
75199.974147.485
76195.580144.533
77191.496141.305
78188.814138.312
79185.594135.437
80182.936131.654
81176.706128.083
82173.220124.671
83169.268120.781
84165.571117.508
85161.224114.661
86156.271110.809
87150.504106.818
88145.699103.590
89141.64899.696
90137.43195.342
91131.61491.253
92125.63686.394
93117.69181.173
94110.48874.751
95102.95270.100
9694.43564.689
9782.54156.668
9869.04649.611
9950.50441.166


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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