Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


Return to catchment list
Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Wonnangatta River at Waterford(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile20.38719.600
Median33.06940.449
Mean41.18155.489
75% Quartile53.48777.328
Interquartile Range33.10057.728

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1148.056221.204
2130.100189.435
3116.577177.045
4106.795166.898
5100.549159.410
695.843149.038
790.400141.779
886.022135.021
982.198128.304
1078.157123.276
1175.660119.117
1273.054114.539
1371.026111.077
1468.947107.617
1566.961103.826
1665.430100.827
1763.75197.338
1862.47593.802
1960.94290.705
2059.53188.277
2158.13585.942
2256.89883.357
2355.92881.559
2454.60378.952
2553.49477.328
2652.18775.936
2751.30673.828
2850.28272.165
2949.20570.244
3048.21768.147
3147.43466.244
3246.69464.328
3345.54362.827
3444.61561.359
3543.87059.363
3642.83057.782
3741.94656.220
3841.28954.776
3940.63353.601
4039.72952.069
4138.87350.604
4238.33749.529
4337.70148.630
4437.08247.406
4536.39346.315
4635.74645.106
4735.10344.020
4834.44942.619
4933.76741.571
5033.06940.449
5132.56539.443
5231.91538.446
5331.38137.293
5430.91136.204
5530.39735.114
5629.94433.811
5729.33833.051
5828.76532.291
5928.31631.465
6027.84430.395
6127.34329.344
6226.90728.587
6326.38227.887
6425.93127.039
6525.50626.386
6624.91525.726
6724.40225.116
6823.90824.330
6923.32623.534
7022.81822.968
7122.29422.202
7221.71721.597
7321.27920.895
7420.86820.276
7520.37919.599
7620.00219.001
7719.48818.358
7819.05017.772
7918.67317.217
8018.13916.499
8117.68015.835
8217.08815.213
8316.57514.517
8415.98513.942
8515.47713.451
8614.79812.798
8714.17812.136
8813.67411.612
8913.09710.991
9012.41910.314
9111.8489.692
9211.0818.973
9310.1798.223
949.6047.332
958.8646.709
967.9766.008
976.8655.014
985.5834.186
994.0193.254


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence