Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


Return to catchment list
Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford



Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Wonnangatta River at Waterford ( Jan 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile14.15011.584
Median22.93520.987
Mean28.03327.186
75% Quartile36.14635.984
Interquartile Range21.99624.400

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1100.208110.401
285.29491.150
376.62284.025
470.10278.372
565.73474.310
662.34068.845
759.96065.133
856.71661.761
954.54158.490
1052.77056.093
1151.12654.143
1249.41952.030
1348.15250.455
1446.94848.900
1545.83147.217
1644.65145.901
1743.70644.386
1842.69542.868
1941.59341.551
2040.38040.527
2139.40639.548
2238.32738.471
2337.43937.726
2436.87236.651
2536.15235.984
2635.58335.414
2734.85234.554
2834.25533.877
2933.65333.098
3032.76132.249
3132.10731.480
3231.52630.707
3330.86130.102
3430.32729.511
3529.88328.707
3629.34928.070
3728.65927.440
3828.18126.857
3927.68626.382
4027.21025.762
4126.75625.167
4226.36524.730
4325.82824.363
4425.42023.863
4524.97723.416
4624.58322.920
4724.23522.472
4823.88421.892
4923.48721.455
5022.93520.987
5122.45620.565
5221.99720.144
5321.59419.656
5421.14019.191
5520.74718.724
5620.39018.160
5720.06817.830
5819.76517.497
5919.38417.134
6019.05216.660
6118.77616.190
6218.43115.849
6318.12815.532
6417.84415.144
6517.56014.844
6617.16614.539
6716.75914.254
6816.47513.885
6916.18613.507
7015.83013.237
7115.50112.868
7215.15512.573
7314.86312.229
7414.57511.923
7514.14811.584
7613.82111.282
7713.49310.954
7813.14310.652
7912.86110.363
8012.5759.985
8112.2019.631
8211.7669.295
8311.4138.914
8410.9898.595
8510.5648.318
8610.1797.946
879.7587.563
889.3327.254
898.9506.882
908.5956.469
918.2566.082
927.7855.623
937.2185.132
946.6874.529
956.1634.092
965.3253.584
974.6602.828
983.7582.159
992.6351.351


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence