Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford



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Probability distribution for Wonnangatta River at Waterford ( Jun 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile140.617102.867
Median204.263169.165
Mean213.315196.612
75% Quartile277.956263.267
Interquartile Range137.340160.399

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1479.663586.955
2443.188515.692
3423.659487.989
4405.633465.336
5387.885448.637
6376.059425.521
7366.633409.346
8359.288394.281
9352.150379.294
10344.895368.061
11339.164358.754
12333.034348.490
13328.283340.709
14322.932332.916
15317.145324.352
16312.752317.556
17308.588309.622
18304.807301.544
19300.171294.437
20296.859288.841
21292.829283.436
22288.694277.424
23285.189273.222
24282.081267.102
25278.037263.269
26274.589259.970
27271.382254.951
28267.941250.969
29264.818246.344
30261.415241.262
31258.340236.618
32255.778231.908
33252.463228.194
34249.341224.537
35246.402219.527
36243.367215.528
37239.993211.543
38237.074207.834
39234.514204.791
40231.599200.798
41228.441196.944
42226.199194.094
43223.672191.696
44220.156188.407
45217.874185.454
46215.166182.155
47212.320179.168
48209.417175.276
49207.138172.337
50204.263169.165
51202.133166.293
52199.961163.423
53197.803160.074
54195.364156.879
55192.820153.644
56190.438149.733
57187.481147.428
58185.001145.103
59182.902142.557
60180.406139.224
61178.457135.908
62175.889133.493
63173.880131.243
64171.858128.487
65169.448126.347
66166.728124.164
67163.447122.129
68160.607119.482
69157.643116.768
70155.192114.819
71152.796112.159
72150.462110.032
73146.972107.542
74144.033105.321
75140.607102.863
76136.576100.671
77133.60998.286
78130.58796.087
79127.79593.983
80124.40591.230
81121.33288.646
82118.03386.190
83114.59183.405
84111.20081.074
85107.25979.054
86103.70976.335
87100.31573.531
8895.72771.273
8991.16468.562
9086.55665.544
9182.75162.723
9277.92759.384
9372.96055.814
9467.82251.442
9562.25648.288
9655.50744.628
9748.17439.217
9836.54534.464
9923.54628.772


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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