Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Historical and exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Sep95.22357.35415.26173.443172.665
Sep-Oct173.002104.56720.495115.064373.486
Sep-Nov217.542129.08422.219153.265495.689

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10319.244374.615
20274.124316.836
30243.804278.884
40214.685243.346
50191.515212.417
60168.766179.481
70146.448149.099
80122.832116.054
9093.01876.322

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1451.308520.318
2411.485473.985
3390.158455.781
4375.535440.785
5360.455429.652
6351.431414.112
7340.841403.133
8333.302392.817
9326.177382.455
10319.244374.615
11314.707368.066
12309.790360.783
13305.658355.216
14302.051349.597
15297.553343.368
16293.359338.383
17288.437332.511
18282.868326.471
19279.099321.103
20274.124316.836
21270.370312.682
22266.197308.019
23263.556304.732
24260.445299.903
25257.485296.851
26254.916294.208
27252.102290.153
28249.289286.908
29246.005283.106
30243.804278.884
31240.813274.985
32238.018270.988
33234.411267.804
34230.722264.642
35227.813260.261
36224.559256.723
37222.229253.159
38219.753249.806
39217.535247.029
40214.685243.346
41212.198239.749
42209.589237.061
43207.093234.780
44204.397231.624
45202.532228.760
46200.520225.526
47198.388222.566
48195.891218.661
49193.555215.675
50191.515212.417
51189.569209.430
52187.333206.414
53184.778202.849
54182.492199.402
55180.260195.866
56177.936191.525
57175.574188.931
58173.287186.289
59170.853183.363
60168.766179.481
61166.561175.559
62164.270172.665
63162.252169.938
64160.346166.558
65158.317163.901
66155.416161.163
67153.128158.583
68150.674155.188
69148.461151.661
70146.448149.099
71144.063145.561
72141.889142.698
73139.663139.308
74137.260136.248
75134.477132.823
76132.477129.733
77130.710126.334
78127.828123.165
79125.210120.104
80122.832116.054
81120.412112.208
82117.737108.515
83115.073104.283
84112.561100.708
85108.96497.587
86105.38193.356
87102.72088.962
8898.78885.403
8995.85681.112
9093.01876.322
9189.62671.840
9285.91166.544
9381.47260.911
9477.23454.094
9572.17949.257
9665.56143.759
9758.52335.924
9852.50629.408
9942.51322.162


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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