Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Historical and exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Aug90.524191.21712.55684.710186.854
Aug-Sep185.747248.57127.817158.153359.519
Aug-Oct263.526295.78333.051199.773560.340

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10413.751437.287
20365.135371.658
30331.352328.560
40299.925288.213
50269.621253.101
60242.111215.692
70211.163181.114
80175.363143.291
90128.45297.059

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1544.439602.828
2505.652550.185
3486.505529.501
4470.926512.463
5455.020499.814
6447.134482.159
7438.332469.686
8429.296457.965
9421.694446.193
10413.751437.287
11408.934429.848
12402.373421.575
13397.026415.251
14391.615408.868
15387.367401.793
16383.699396.130
17378.205389.461
18374.019382.600
19369.203376.503
20365.135371.658
21362.093366.940
22358.081361.644
23353.765357.912
24350.225352.427
25346.353348.962
26343.284345.960
27340.016341.356
28336.564337.671
29333.765333.354
30331.352328.560
31328.321324.133
32325.103319.595
33321.345315.980
34317.887312.390
35315.132307.416
36312.471303.399
37308.658299.354
38305.452295.547
39303.010292.394
40299.925288.213
41296.445284.130
42293.790281.078
43290.586278.489
44287.356274.906
45284.242271.655
46281.043267.984
47278.347264.623
48276.029260.191
49273.027256.800
50269.621253.101
51266.287249.710
52263.519246.285
53260.861242.237
54257.816238.323
55255.074234.307
56252.326229.376
57250.013226.430
58246.887223.428
59244.501220.103
60242.111215.692
61239.355211.234
62236.386207.943
63233.466204.842
64230.739200.997
65227.606197.974
66223.906194.857
67220.907191.921
68218.299188.053
69214.682184.035
70211.163181.114
71207.784177.078
72204.389173.812
73200.703169.940
74196.598166.443
75193.477162.526
76190.410158.990
77186.792155.096
78182.917151.461
79180.076147.947
80175.363143.291
81170.459138.863
82166.651134.604
83162.471129.713
84158.401125.573
85153.530121.953
86148.378117.032
87143.903111.905
88139.138107.742
89133.565102.705
90128.45297.059
91121.51191.752
92113.68185.448
93107.62678.699
94100.14070.463
9591.27964.567
9678.73157.810
9769.53448.062
9855.40339.831
9929.91530.524


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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