Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Historical and exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Apr12.14020.35411.4192.8188.04318.383
Apr-May33.14538.32025.6575.11717.833221.042
Apr-Jun80.848198.95398.2378.18267.609342.730

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10166.331
20111.244
3084.507
4064.971
5051.467
6039.927
7031.315
8023.607
9015.865

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1389.019
2306.738
3276.927
4253.638
5237.144
6215.311
7200.749
8187.729
9175.301
10166.331
11159.122
12151.405
13145.716
14140.157
15134.206
16129.600
17124.351
18119.147
19114.684
20111.244
21107.983
22104.425
23101.981
2498.484
2596.332
2694.502
2791.756
2889.612
2987.159
3084.507
3182.124
3279.746
3377.898
3476.102
3573.676
3671.771
3769.897
3868.176
3966.781
4064.971
4163.248
4261.988
4360.937
4459.509
4558.241
4656.839
4755.583
4853.965
4952.757
5051.467
5150.310
5249.165
5347.842
5446.594
5545.343
5643.849
5742.977
5842.105
5941.156
6039.927
6138.716
6237.843
6337.036
6436.055
6535.299
6634.533
6733.824
6832.908
6931.978
7031.315
7130.416
7229.703
7328.875
7428.141
7527.335
7626.622
7725.852
7825.147
7924.477
8023.607
8122.798
8222.035
8321.178
8420.466
8519.854
8619.036
8718.201
8817.534
8916.740
9015.865
9115.056
9214.109
9313.109
9411.904
9511.048
9610.068
978.649
987.433
996.017


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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