Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Historical and exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jun47.703160.63372.5803.06549.775121.688
Jun-Jul115.207270.588187.6618.920112.861388.850
Jun-Aug203.588349.462378.87830.041190.813575.704

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10335.437368.061
20286.946288.841
30251.688241.262
40222.792200.798
50195.794169.165
60172.010139.224
70147.295114.819
80117.19291.230
9080.90065.544

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1467.563586.955
2432.087515.692
3412.996487.989
4396.060465.336
5378.829448.637
6366.326425.521
7356.617409.346
8349.768394.281
9342.286379.294
10335.437368.061
11329.416358.754
12323.615348.490
13318.253340.709
14313.630332.916
15307.743324.352
16303.197317.556
17298.916309.622
18294.827301.544
19290.781294.437
20286.946288.841
21283.233283.436
22279.492277.424
23275.826273.222
24272.140267.102
25269.185263.269
26265.424259.970
27262.077254.951
28258.298250.969
29255.540246.344
30251.688241.262
31249.349236.618
32246.496231.908
33243.796228.194
34240.556224.537
35237.170219.527
36234.103215.528
37231.412211.543
38228.318207.834
39225.097204.791
40222.792200.798
41219.767196.944
42217.334194.094
43214.448191.696
44211.604188.407
45208.618185.454
46206.248182.155
47203.807179.168
48200.545175.276
49198.219172.337
50195.794169.165
51193.463166.293
52191.397163.423
53188.838160.074
54186.410156.879
55184.056153.644
56181.544149.733
57179.177147.428
58176.648145.103
59174.565142.557
60172.010139.224
61169.723135.908
62167.795133.493
63165.607131.243
64163.418128.487
65161.029126.347
66158.119124.164
67155.175122.129
68152.310119.482
69149.815116.768
70147.295114.819
71145.229112.159
72142.429110.032
73139.561107.542
74136.257105.321
75132.849102.863
76129.298100.671
77126.33798.286
78123.28296.087
79120.31493.983
80117.19291.230
81114.12088.646
82111.20686.190
83107.85883.405
84104.26181.074
85100.16679.054
8697.00176.335
8793.52373.531
8889.35971.273
8984.89568.562
9080.90065.544
9176.41362.723
9272.69459.384
9367.85055.814
9462.60451.442
9556.97848.288
9651.20044.628
9743.52539.217
9833.08034.464
9919.45628.772


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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