Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Historical and exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Feb9.5042.7512.5790.30913.86210.934
Feb-Mar18.47114.0255.8530.58133.816127.303
Feb-Apr30.59625.44415.0401.07642.570147.658

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1059.138
2038.939
3029.016
4021.810
5016.892
6012.760
709.736
807.090
904.509

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1133.168
2107.121
397.360
489.587
583.997
676.482
771.396
866.797
962.363
1059.138
1156.530
1253.725
1351.648
1449.612
1547.426
1645.729
1743.792
1841.867
1940.214
2038.939
2137.729
2236.409
2335.501
2434.203
2533.404
2632.724
2731.705
2830.909
2929.999
3029.016
3128.134
3227.254
3326.570
3425.907
3525.011
3624.309
3723.619
3822.986
3922.474
4021.810
4121.178
4220.717
4320.333
4419.812
4519.350
4618.840
4718.383
4817.796
4917.359
5016.892
5116.474
5216.062
5315.586
5415.138
5514.690
5614.155
5713.844
5813.533
5913.196
6012.760
6112.331
6212.023
6311.738
6411.393
6511.127
6610.859
6710.611
6810.291
699.967
709.736
719.424
729.178
738.892
748.639
758.362
768.117
777.854
787.613
797.385
807.090
816.816
826.559
836.270
846.032
855.827
865.555
875.278
885.057
894.796
904.509
914.245
923.938
933.616
943.230
952.958
962.650
972.208
981.834
991.406


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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