Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford


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Product list for Wonnangatta River at Waterford



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Historical and exceedance probability for Wonnangatta River at Waterford ( Jan 2012 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Jan13.44839.05616.3261.65112.53339.056
Jan-Feb23.06798.71427.2601.96026.27398.714
Jan-Mar29.649128.637143.6292.23234.135128.637

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1065.93456.093
2050.92440.527
3041.43232.249
4035.16525.762
5029.47620.987
6024.82816.660
7020.77113.237
8016.5189.985
9011.5906.469

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1123.140110.401
2105.96391.150
394.44084.025
486.71978.372
581.69774.310
677.64868.845
773.90265.133
870.80261.761
968.25158.490
1065.93456.093
1164.28754.143
1262.43752.030
1360.32150.455
1458.93748.900
1557.52147.217
1656.35945.901
1755.26044.386
1853.73142.868
1952.24341.551
2050.92440.527
2149.82539.548
2248.78538.471
2347.65537.726
2446.73336.651
2545.96035.984
2645.03235.414
2744.22234.554
2843.32033.877
2942.49733.098
3041.43232.249
3140.82231.480
3240.02530.707
3339.45730.102
3438.72329.511
3538.05628.707
3637.39128.070
3736.87227.440
3836.19426.857
3935.56626.382
4035.16525.762
4134.63225.167
4233.88624.730
4333.22124.363
4432.69423.863
4532.12323.416
4631.53122.920
4730.94722.472
4830.50321.892
4929.97521.455
5029.47620.987
5128.92320.565
5228.42420.144
5328.04619.656
5427.50619.191
5526.92118.724
5626.37618.160
5725.85917.830
5825.52717.497
5925.13117.134
6024.82816.660
6124.41516.190
6223.96115.849
6323.59915.532
6423.15215.144
6522.66514.844
6622.27314.539
6721.88714.254
6821.49813.885
6921.12113.507
7020.77113.237
7120.35212.868
7219.94912.573
7319.47812.229
7419.07511.923
7518.70611.584
7618.25811.282
7717.84110.954
7817.29710.652
7916.82710.363
8016.5189.985
8116.1459.631
8215.5269.295
8314.9478.914
8414.4648.595
8514.0688.318
8613.5287.946
8713.0027.563
8812.5547.254
8912.0626.882
9011.5906.469
9111.0636.082
9210.5345.623
939.9135.132
949.2274.529
958.4594.092
967.6293.584
976.6552.828
985.3772.159
994.2461.351


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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