Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


Return to catchment list
Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1094.476102.652
2082.46183.566
3074.40272.528
4067.90863.242
5062.56855.935
6057.35848.863
7051.91442.883
8045.91236.795
9038.43329.613

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1126.864161.791
2118.538141.501
3112.200133.871
4107.998127.747
5105.092123.299
6102.683117.239
7100.106113.064
898.015109.224
995.883105.451
1094.476102.652
1193.230100.351
1291.69697.834
1390.39695.938
1489.43394.051
1588.07091.989
1686.97190.362
1785.88588.472
1884.46486.557
1983.28184.881
2082.46183.566
2181.78582.300
2280.97980.896
2380.07879.917
2479.24478.495
2578.30277.606
2677.41276.842
2776.66975.682
2875.95574.763
2975.22073.698
3074.40272.528
3173.76471.460
3273.14170.379
3372.35269.526
3471.59768.688
3571.00467.539
3670.46366.622
3769.91765.708
3869.33164.857
3968.68364.159
4067.90863.242
4167.32062.357
4266.82661.701
4366.13561.149
4465.59060.392
4565.08959.711
4664.65058.949
4764.16958.258
4863.70457.356
4963.10456.673
5062.56855.935
5162.14155.265
5261.59254.595
5361.00953.810
5460.34153.059
5559.85152.296
5659.25251.371
5758.80450.824
5858.42050.270
5957.85149.662
6057.35848.863
6156.64548.065
6256.09847.481
6355.63546.935
6455.00146.263
6554.57145.739
6654.04045.203
6753.54744.702
6853.00844.046
6952.47543.370
7051.91442.883
7151.47142.214
7250.95941.676
7350.51741.044
7449.90740.476
7549.32339.844
7648.69639.277
7748.00638.657
7847.22338.081
7946.48337.526
8045.91236.795
8145.45136.103
8244.90735.440
8344.21834.682
8443.42934.041
8542.63933.481
8641.92632.720
8741.09731.927
8840.17631.281
8939.19330.497
9038.43329.613
9137.48928.774
9236.36027.765
9335.48726.665
9434.17625.286
9532.87924.266
9631.14823.053
9729.70521.197
9827.42819.491
9924.22017.336


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence