Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


Return to catchment list
Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1040.34756.220
2035.86945.219
3032.82639.177
4030.47234.230
5028.26430.402
6026.44826.736
7024.50723.651
8022.27220.515
9019.51116.800

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
154.63397.273
250.25981.714
347.58776.305
445.88972.119
544.84169.160
643.56865.232
742.59162.591
841.78960.207
941.01657.904
1040.34756.220
1139.83754.850
1239.20453.366
1338.65752.259
1438.14851.164
1537.63249.977
1637.25149.047
1736.86847.973
1836.53946.893
1936.20245.953
2035.86945.219
2135.47744.516
2235.17243.739
2334.83843.200
2434.50342.419
2534.17841.933
2633.89041.516
2733.59640.884
2833.36940.385
2933.05639.809
3032.82639.177
3132.60638.603
3232.41238.023
3332.09437.566
3431.82737.118
3531.60536.506
3631.35636.019
3731.13535.534
3830.91935.083
3930.70434.714
4030.47234.230
4130.25533.764
4229.97733.419
4329.74833.129
4429.53732.731
4529.34632.374
4629.13031.975
4728.91031.614
4828.66331.143
4928.46930.787
5028.26430.402
5128.08430.054
5227.93529.705
5327.76029.297
5427.52228.908
5527.37228.512
5627.19628.033
5727.04227.749
5826.82927.463
5926.61927.149
6026.44826.736
6126.22926.323
6226.05826.022
6325.81625.740
6425.63125.394
6525.47625.123
6625.31124.847
6725.07724.588
6824.91124.251
6924.73723.903
7024.50723.651
7124.25723.307
7224.02323.030
7323.79922.704
7423.61322.412
7523.39022.086
7623.17221.794
7722.96221.475
7822.74221.178
7922.49720.892
8022.27220.515
8122.06620.158
8221.78419.816
8321.57419.425
8421.35819.094
8521.05118.804
8620.77918.411
8720.49318.000
8820.19317.666
8919.83917.259
9019.51116.800
9119.16216.364
9218.74615.838
9318.32315.264
9417.84314.543
9517.17114.007
9616.75213.369
9716.05012.387
9815.17911.479
9913.71610.324


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence