Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1027.20340.896
2024.26834.683
3022.06630.833
4020.32127.421
5018.78824.614
6017.47921.790
7016.10419.316
8014.52316.718
9012.51413.557

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
136.61857.821
233.95452.302
332.41050.162
431.16748.413
530.19447.125
629.38145.341
728.81844.092
828.11942.927
927.62641.767
1027.20340.896
1126.84340.173
1226.40339.375
1326.02438.768
1425.75538.159
1525.50237.488
1625.20836.954
1724.97336.329
1824.71735.691
1924.47035.128
2024.26834.683
2124.06234.251
2223.84333.770
2323.57233.433
2423.31332.940
2523.06732.630
2622.90332.363
2722.68831.954
2822.51331.629
2922.28231.251
3022.06630.833
3121.92530.449
3221.76730.058
3321.58629.748
3421.38629.442
3521.23729.020
3621.03128.682
3720.85228.343
3820.61928.027
3920.45527.765
4020.32127.421
4120.16227.087
4220.03426.838
4319.89826.629
4419.75426.339
4519.57126.079
4619.39125.785
4719.23325.519
4819.07425.169
4918.94124.903
5018.78824.614
5118.66224.352
5218.55024.087
5318.42123.777
5418.26223.479
5518.12123.175
5617.97522.804
5717.85122.584
5817.71022.360
5917.58922.114
6017.47921.790
6117.35621.464
6217.19521.225
6317.04421.000
6416.90820.724
6516.77120.507
6616.59620.285
6716.48920.076
6816.35419.803
6916.21619.520
7016.10419.316
7115.99419.034
7215.85918.807
7315.68018.539
7415.53218.298
7515.36918.029
7615.20717.787
7715.03617.521
7814.89717.273
7914.73017.034
8014.52316.718
8114.34716.418
8214.17716.130
8314.01415.798
8413.79115.518
8513.61415.272
8613.44014.937
8713.24814.586
8813.05414.300
8912.74713.952
9012.51413.557
9112.17713.182
9211.96012.728
9311.65112.232
9411.23911.608
9510.86711.144
9610.37010.591
979.9529.740
989.2538.955
998.4547.960


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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