Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1087.76896.604
2077.87980.485
3070.93270.874
4065.13962.602
5060.17855.962
6055.44749.419
7050.67043.791
8045.25837.970
9038.29530.976

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1117.173143.722
2108.677127.923
3103.762121.898
4100.486117.022
597.768113.458
695.220108.565
792.751105.170
890.876102.028
989.22998.921
1087.76896.604
1186.86694.691
1285.64192.589
1384.45991.000
1483.19689.412
1582.05287.671
1681.10486.292
1780.26784.685
1879.36583.051
1978.57281.615
2077.87980.485
2177.05279.394
2276.31678.181
2375.45777.333
2474.96876.098
2574.17675.324
2673.44874.658
2772.74073.644
2872.16372.839
2971.42871.904
3070.93270.874
3170.39069.932
3269.68068.976
3369.16168.220
3468.55767.475
3568.01966.452
3667.32365.634
3766.63064.816
3866.08764.054
3965.61663.427
4065.13962.602
4164.63661.804
4264.03661.212
4363.54660.712
4463.09260.026
4562.54259.408
4662.08458.715
4761.53958.085
4861.10857.262
4960.60556.638
5060.17855.962
5159.74355.347
5259.37754.731
5358.83254.008
5458.32853.315
5557.97252.610
5657.55851.753
5757.11851.244
5856.65150.730
5956.03150.164
6055.44749.419
6154.85648.672
6254.39048.126
6353.95947.614
6453.50146.983
6553.08246.490
6652.66845.985
6752.18245.512
6851.67044.893
6951.16644.253
7050.67043.791
7150.15543.156
7249.70742.645
7349.22942.043
7448.69341.501
7548.14840.898
7647.69840.355
7747.17139.760
7846.54939.207
7945.95038.674
8045.25837.970
8144.64037.303
8244.09536.662
8343.33035.927
8442.62535.305
8542.11334.760
8641.32534.019
8740.64533.245
8839.84132.613
8939.03231.845
9038.29530.976
9137.57030.150
9236.73729.153
9335.81328.064
9434.58326.692
9533.45225.675
9632.02624.461
9730.19722.593
9827.83720.867
9924.72418.672


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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