Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1078.583102.527
2068.63686.073
3061.33675.956
4055.74467.060
5050.63959.799
6046.28952.552
7041.75546.263
8036.81839.724
9030.85531.864

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1110.412147.775
299.997132.977
394.673127.248
491.257122.571
588.286119.128
685.578114.365
783.080111.034
881.393107.931
980.046104.843
1078.583102.527
1177.540100.606
1276.38198.486
1375.16296.876
1473.83395.262
1572.95293.485
1672.03992.072
1771.16790.420
1870.12788.734
1969.23187.247
2068.63686.073
2167.99684.936
2267.14983.669
2366.42782.781
2465.62681.484
2564.85180.670
2664.17379.968
2763.42678.897
2862.68978.044
2961.98377.051
3061.33675.956
3160.73374.952
3260.13373.930
3359.60873.121
3459.05272.322
3558.50371.222
3657.94570.340
3757.46569.458
3856.87268.634
3956.28267.955
4055.74467.060
4155.12666.193
4254.59765.548
4354.02265.004
4453.59364.255
4553.01963.580
4652.52062.822
4752.07862.132
4851.67261.229
4951.13160.543
5050.63959.799
5150.19759.122
5249.73058.442
5349.30057.644
5448.89456.877
5548.37456.097
5648.03255.146
5747.59254.583
5847.20354.011
5946.75653.382
6046.28952.552
6145.83051.721
6245.44651.111
6344.95550.540
6444.45549.835
6544.04149.285
6643.56148.720
6743.17548.191
6842.69147.497
6942.25846.781
7041.75546.263
7141.34145.551
7240.83044.977
7340.26644.301
7439.89143.693
7539.39843.015
7638.84742.405
7738.45141.737
7837.96641.115
7937.42540.516
8036.81839.724
8136.34238.973
8235.72838.252
8335.23237.425
8434.74136.726
8534.14136.114
8633.52935.281
8732.99034.411
8832.27633.701
8931.64332.839
9030.85531.864
9130.26130.938
9229.40329.823
9328.67128.606
9427.54327.077
9526.39225.945
9625.03124.600
9723.72222.537
9822.06420.643
9919.96218.253


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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