Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1052.29574.066
2045.91159.011
3041.45550.808
4038.00144.132
5035.08138.995
6032.37934.101
7029.70130.006
8026.76625.867
9022.91720.999

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
173.870131.246
267.229109.420
363.478101.872
460.93296.047
558.87591.939
657.08486.496
755.52982.846
854.44579.556
953.12476.383
1052.29574.066
1151.20272.184
1250.27270.147
1349.61668.629
1448.96667.129
1548.31165.505
1647.73964.233
1747.28162.767
1846.81761.292
1946.34760.011
2045.91159.011
2145.52358.054
2244.92356.997
2344.47056.264
2443.98255.203
2543.40754.542
2642.88853.977
2742.53253.120
2842.07952.444
2941.76551.663
3041.45550.808
3141.13250.031
3240.79649.246
3340.40548.630
3440.05548.025
3539.68647.198
3639.41446.541
3739.02945.887
3838.72045.280
3938.38244.783
4038.00144.132
4137.65943.505
4237.40643.041
4337.09242.651
4436.79142.117
4536.49841.638
4636.21441.103
4735.94140.618
4835.62939.987
4935.30039.510
5035.08138.995
5134.79938.529
5234.54738.062
5334.32137.517
5434.02636.996
5533.72636.469
5633.43035.829
5733.14435.451
5832.85535.069
5932.63034.651
6032.37934.101
6132.12033.552
6231.83533.151
6331.51532.777
6431.17332.316
6530.94931.958
6630.69031.591
6730.50031.248
6830.26030.800
6929.95430.339
7029.70130.006
7129.40429.550
7229.09529.184
7328.80528.753
7428.49528.367
7528.20827.938
7628.00427.552
7727.70627.131
7827.41026.739
7927.10126.363
8026.76625.867
8126.44925.398
8226.07224.948
8325.79724.434
8425.42824.000
8525.07023.620
8624.77323.105
8724.38922.567
8823.86622.130
8923.36321.599
9022.91720.999
9122.40420.431
9221.94019.747
9321.36919.001
9420.82518.064
9520.14917.371
9619.33216.546
9718.41515.280
9817.27614.113
9915.51312.634


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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