Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove


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Product list for Latrobe River at Willow Grove



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Exceedance probability for Latrobe River at Willow Grove ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1031.49246.544
2027.52738.811
3025.33134.378
4023.36030.628
5021.57327.639
6020.05724.691
7018.40922.137
8016.56919.459
9014.26116.158

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
142.46072.808
239.01763.236
336.96159.811
435.64557.121
534.93655.198
634.00952.614
733.24050.857
832.59049.256
931.92447.695
1031.49246.544
1131.01245.602
1230.43444.575
1329.96143.804
1429.60243.039
1529.20342.204
1628.84641.547
1728.43140.785
1828.10140.014
1927.77939.340
2027.52738.811
2127.29838.303
2227.06237.739
2326.83137.346
2426.62336.775
2526.43236.418
2626.21836.112
2725.98935.646
2825.82135.277
2925.57234.849
3025.33134.378
3125.12433.949
3224.96833.513
3324.71833.170
3424.53532.832
3524.32832.368
3624.16731.998
3723.99631.628
3823.76431.283
3923.57031.000
4023.36030.628
4123.17830.268
4223.01730.001
4322.85329.776
4422.68229.467
4522.49629.189
4622.28828.877
4722.10928.594
4821.91428.224
4921.73827.943
5021.57327.639
5121.38827.362
5221.25527.085
5321.14126.759
5421.00326.448
5520.87326.130
5620.65125.744
5720.51825.515
5820.31325.283
5920.19725.027
6020.05724.691
6119.89624.354
6219.72924.106
6319.56323.875
6419.37423.589
6519.19623.365
6619.03023.136
6718.87222.921
6818.73822.639
6918.56222.348
7018.40922.137
7118.22521.847
7218.05921.614
7317.89821.338
7417.69721.089
7517.51720.812
7617.30820.562
7717.15820.288
7816.97920.033
7916.76719.786
8016.56919.459
8116.37619.149
8216.13318.850
8315.94418.506
8415.75118.214
8515.52617.958
8615.30117.608
8715.07417.241
8814.81716.941
8914.52916.574
9014.26116.158
9113.92015.759
9213.60915.276
9313.23914.744
9412.89614.068
9512.50513.562
9612.04012.953
9711.49912.001
9810.71811.106
999.5219.941


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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